Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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586 FXUS61 KALY 210913 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 513 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Morning clouds break for partly sunny skies today with continued mainly dry and seasonably warm conditions before skies trend clearer through the day tomorrow and temperatures turn a bit cooler. Our long stretch of dry weather then comes to an end by the middle to end of this week as unsettled conditions develop and chances for showers increase Tuesday through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Our coastal low will continue to spin southeast of Cape Cod today maintaining east-northeast flow but high pressure building southward through eastern Quebec into northern New England will finally help steer it further out to sea. Early stratus clouds will dissipate by mid to late morning giving way to partly sunny skies as high clouds continue to spill eastward ahead of a warm front pushing through western PA/NY with some mid-level clouds as our backdoor front stalls overhead. Given the increased cloud coverage, temperatures should be slightly cooler than yesterday with highs rising into the mid to upper 70s in eastern NY (still above normal for late September). Highs will be cooler in the mid-60s to low 70s in western New England where morning stratus linger the longest. East-northeast winds in western New England will also be a bit breezy with sustained winds 6-10kts given closer proximity to the coastal low and incoming high. Guidance is in good agreement that a weak shortwave rotating around what is left of the parent closed low in New England will track into our region but given lackluster moisture and weak overall forcing, any isolated showers look limited to the Adirondacks. Given weak/light nature of any showers, we maintained a dry forecast but may need to introduce some slight chance POPs in future updates depending on radar trends. Stratus clouds redevelop this evening, especially in western New England, as our backdoor front washouts out as it slides further west through the Mohawk Valley/western Adirondacks and our coastal low continues to slowly exit southward. High pressure centered in eastern Quebec expands and gains control of the Northeast. Given anticipated cloud coverage, did not include any fog mention. Overnight lows remains a bit mild with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s thanks to clouds. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Upper level ridging from the Ohio Valley amplifies as it builds into western/central NY on Sunday providing increasing subsidence that allow early clouds to give way to clearing as high pressure over Quebec maintains control at the sfc. All of these features will give us a pleasant Sunday and first day of autumn with high temperatures reaching into the low to mid 70s in the valley with mid to upper 60s in the higher terrain and hill towns. Temperatures cool off noticeably towards sunset given clear skies. Clear skies continue Sunday night supporting efficient radiational cooling but as the upper level ridge axis flattens and slides into western New England, cirrus clouds should spread eastward overnight. Still expecting a chillier night as cirrus clouds likely will not hinder radiational cooling much with temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 40s for much of the area (around 50 in the immediate valley areas). Upper level ridging continues to flatten on Monday as a weak shortwave trough in Ontario and associated weak warm front from western PA/NY pushes eastward. High pressure centered in eastern Quebec maintains a strong hold over the Northeast as the warm front remains to our west. Thus, only expecting increasing clouds through the day Monday with most showers remaining to our west. Included slight chance and chance POPs in the southern Adirondacks Monday P.M given some uncertainty but the best warm air/moisture advection remains to our west. Thus, POPs may may very well be removed in future updates. Otherwise, southeast winds become a bit breezy at times as the pressure gradient tightens between the Canadian high and weak low tracking through the southern Great Lakes. High temperatures will end up a few degrees cooler compared to the weekend with daytime highs reaching into the mid to upper 60s with low 70s in the valley. Skies remain cloudy Monday night which will keep temperatures a bit elevated in the low to mid 50s in the valley with upper 40s in the higher terrain and hill towns. As the sfc warm front near closers, the leading edge of the stronger warm air/moisture advection along the sfc convergence advances eastward leading to increasing POPs from west to east Monday night. However, with high pressure keeping a strong hold over the Northeast, we capped POPs at only chance in eastern NY with slight chance in western New England as some guidance indicates showers weaken or even diminish as they run into the sfc high. Will continue to monitor trends. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A wetter, unsettled period continues through much of next week as persistent upper-level troughing develops over much of the eastern CONUS. An initial upper trough over the Northern Plains on Tuesday will track eastward, with ensemble guidance continuing to suggest troughing will eventually move into Southeast Canada while a cutoff low develops somewhere from the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley Thursday into Friday. Details aside, troughing moving toward the Northeast will see repeated chances for rain, initially arriving from the west on Tuesday, and spreading eastward through Wednesday and Thursday. Chances for additional showers on Friday remain dependent on the relative placement of upper lows over New England and the MS/OH Valleys, and are a low confidence forecast at this lead time. Beneath persistent upper troughing, temperatures look to remain steady at seasonable levels through the period. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 50s to mid 60s in high terrain and mid 60s to low 70s at lower elevations each of Tuesday through Friday afternoons, while lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s are expected Tuesday through Friday nights. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06Z Sunday...VFR cigs at terminals along the Hudson will trend toward MVFR at 2-3 kft as low clouds associated with a surface low off Cape Cod slowly extend westward from New England, while MVFR cigs persist at PSF. Elevated low cloud coverage will lessen the potential for the development of any radiation fog, but there remains a conditional threat for restricted vsbys within fog if the low cloud deck remains east of ALB/GFL/POU, however that is considered the less likely scenario at this point. Following sunrise, low cloud coverage will decrease as diurnal mixing initiates, however sct strato-cu coverage at 3-5 kft will continue through much of the day. Bkn cigs at 2-5 kft are again expected late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as a weak upper- level system approaches from the west, but no other impacts are anticipated at area terminals. Calm to light and variable winds tonight will increase out of the north to northeast at around 5 kt after 12-15Z Sat, turning increasingly out of the east at 5-10 kt through 00Z Sun. Light east winds at less than 5 kt are expected into Saturday night. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Speciale NEAR TERM...Speciale SHORT TERM...Speciale LONG TERM...Picard AVIATION...Picard