Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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161 FXUS64 KAMA 241721 AAB AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1221 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The main headline through the short term (and the rest of the week) will be the hot temperatures. Temperatures will continue to slowly increase both today and tomorrow, with Tuesday featuring widespread highs at or just above the century mark. Additionally, some showers or storms may develop late on Tuesday across the Panhandles, providing some relief from the hot temperatures. A few isolated rain showers remain across the central/southern Texas Panhandle early this morning. The showers will continue to dissipate through the morning hours. With cloud cover over the region this morning, temperatures will likely bottom out in the 70s for most areas across the Panhandles. High pressure will continue to remain across much of the southern CONUS today with the center of the H500 high slowly drifting off to the west. Weak west to northwest flow should prevail across the Southern High Plains today which will aid in developing a weak leeside low across eastern Colorado by mid day. The surface pressure gradient will tighten across the region as a result and breezy south winds are forecast for this afternoon, which will provide a little relief from the hot temperatures. Highs today will be in the upper 90s to just over the triple digit mark. Some locations may get close or briefly get up to 105 degrees, but confidence is not high enough to issue any Heat Advisories for any locations for today. A weak disturbance may be able to kick off some showers and storms across the higher terrain to the west late this afternoon into the evening. Model guidance does not agree with how far east and southeast the storms may get tonight, so have kept in the non mentionable NBM PoPs for now. Center of high pressure should remain across New Mexico on Tuesday and is forecast to become slightly stronger, this will turn flow aloft to out of the northwest to north during the daytime hours on Tuesday. Temperatures on Tuesday morning will start a couple of degrees warmer than they will this morning and combined with stronger WAA at the lower levels, temperatures should easily rise to just over 100 degrees for most of the Panhandles. Additionally, with dew points remaining on the higher end, this is not expected to be our typical dry heat the region usually sees. Some locations, in particular across the eastern Panhandles, are forecast to have heat index values a few degrees above the air temperature which may cause heat related issues on Tuesday afternoon. With confidence continuing to increase in potential heat related issues, have issued a Heat Advisory for the eastern Panhandles and Palo Duro Canyon. The advisory may need to be expanded further west should confidence increase in the higher temperatures or higher dew points than currently expected. Relief from the heat may come late in the day as plenty of moisture still looks to remain over the High Plains and a weak disturbance should generate some scattered showers and storms by the evening hours on Tuesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected given weak shear and CAPE values around 1000 J/kg. However, with PWAT values still around 1 to 1.25 inches, moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible. Storms will also be slow movers as the steering flow aloft is very weak so some isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible. Temperatures Tuesday night should be a bit cooler and some locations may even drop into the mid 60s by early Wednesday morning. Muscha && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Once again little change was made to the long term periods compared to what was assessed in the numerical weather models 24 hours ago. The main message continues to be the heat and triple digit high temperatures Wednesday through Friday. The upper level ridge of high pressure will be the overall dominant feature in our weather pattern from Wednesday through Sunday. A weak cold front may move across the region on Saturday and could temporarily bring slightly cooler temperatures for this weekend. Otherwise, given the strength of this ridge, high temperatures across many locations will likely approach or exceed 100 degrees Wednesday through Friday. Heat Index values may approach or exceed 105 degrees at times, most likely on Wednesday and Friday across parts of the area, and additional Heat Advisories may be needed on one or more of those days as well. Precipitation chances Wednesday through Sunday will strongly depend on the strength of the upper level high pressure as well as how much of our forecast area sits beneath it. Nearly all medium range models continue to indicate periodic meandering of the ridge axis during the extended periods. The latest NBM pops and temperatures remain plausible based on the forecast synoptic pattern and were accepted with no adjustments necessary for this package. 02 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Southerly winds at 13 to 17 knots with higher gusts will decrease to the 10 to 15 knot range this evening. Winds will then pick up again at the AMA TAF site to near 20 knots by mid morning. Thunderstorms may try to make a run at the DHT and GUY TAF sites, but confidence in any one thunderstorm affecting the TAF sites is very low, so will not mention them at this time. Skies are expected to remain VFR outside of thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 74 102 71 99 / 10 20 20 10 Beaver OK 74 103 68 98 / 20 20 20 10 Boise City OK 68 101 66 97 / 20 20 10 20 Borger TX 77 106 72 104 / 10 20 30 10 Boys Ranch TX 74 104 70 101 / 10 20 20 10 Canyon TX 72 100 70 99 / 10 20 20 10 Clarendon TX 72 103 72 99 / 10 10 20 10 Dalhart TX 68 102 66 99 / 20 20 20 20 Guymon OK 71 102 67 98 / 10 10 20 10 Hereford TX 72 102 70 100 / 10 20 20 10 Lipscomb TX 76 104 70 100 / 20 20 20 10 Pampa TX 74 101 71 99 / 10 20 20 10 Shamrock TX 74 104 72 101 / 10 10 10 10 Wellington TX 75 104 74 103 / 10 10 10 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ005-010-015- 020-317. OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ003. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...15