236
FXUS64 KAMA 241934
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
234 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Thunderstorms developing over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains will
try to make a run at the western Oklahoma Panhandle and the
northwest Texas Panhandle tonight.  Have added in a small chance of
rain for this area for the possibility of storms making it in.
Another batch of showers and thunderstorms over southwest Kansas may
make it into our northeast CWA overnight, so have added some low
pops there as well.  A low level jet, combined with low level
moisture and an upper level disturbance may all help to keep
thunderstorms going through the night.

A surface trough is expected to drop southeastward across the
northwestern parts of the CWA for Tuesday.  This trough could be a
focus for additional showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and
evening.  Have gone ahead and added small chances of rain for this
possibility.

Highs on Tuesday are expected to be around 105 in the eastern
Panhandles and in Palo Duro Canyon, so will continue with the heat
advisory for these areas.  We may need to expand the heat advisory
for the Canadian River Valley as well as temperatures at Boys Ranch
and Borger should get close to 105.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The first half of the long-term is bound by a fairly consistent
pattern: a robust upper-level ridge centered over the vicinity of
the Panhandles leading to widespread highs around 100 degrees.
Models suggest that weak impulses round the edge of the ridge which
introduces a 20-30% chance for thunderstorms from the late afternoon
hours and through the evening. Friday looks to be the hottest day of
the long-range with 850mb temperatures as high as 35C to 36C if the
GFS is correct. This would certainly suggest there is potential for
a Heat Advisory at least in Palo Duro Canyon, if not elsewhere.

Models suggest that the upper-level ridge will get flattened some
Friday night by a rather impressive upper-level trough in the Upper
Midwest. This could lead to a weak cold front moving into the
Panhandles on Friday night with a weak shortwave trough that
develops off the Colorado Rockies, introducing a chance for showers
and perhaps some thunderstorms in the northern and central
Panhandles Friday night.

NBM is quite excited about precipitation chances Saturday night with
50-60% PoPs already for much of the area. This is in response to a
potential secondary push of the "cold" front and another weak
shortwave trough moving across, as well as some rather impressive
moisture content... 24/00z ECMWF and 24/12z GFS showing around 1.5"
to 1.7" PWATs. That said, this is a rather subtle shortwave trough
thus currently think the NBM PoPs are overdone for being this far
out and without a more robust forcing mechanism. The expectation
at this time is that it`s more likely than not that this will not
be an area- wide event, and that the PoPs will become more refined
with time.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Southerly winds at 13 to 17 knots with higher gusts will decrease
to the 10 to 15 knot range this evening. Winds will then pick up
again at the AMA TAF site to near 20 knots by mid morning.
Thunderstorms may try to make a run at the DHT and GUY TAF sites,
but confidence in any one thunderstorm affecting the TAF sites is
very low, so will not mention them at this time. Skies are
expected to remain VFR outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                74 100  69 100 /  10  20  20  10
Beaver OK                  75 104  69  98 /  20  20  20  10
Boise City OK              68 100  66  98 /  20  20  10  20
Borger TX                  77 107  70 105 /  10  20  30  10
Boys Ranch TX              74 105  70 102 /  10  20  20  10
Canyon TX                  72  99  68  99 /  10  20  20  10
Clarendon TX               73  99  71  99 /  10  10  20  10
Dalhart TX                 68 101  66 100 /  20  20  20  20
Guymon OK                  71 102  68  99 /  10  10  20  10
Hereford TX                73 101  68 100 /  10  20  20  10
Lipscomb TX                76 106  70 101 /  20  20  20  10
Pampa TX                   74 101  70 101 /  10  20  20  10
Shamrock TX                74 104  72 102 /  10  10  10  10
Wellington TX              75 105  74 104 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ005-010-015-
     020-317.

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...15