383
FXUS64 KAMA 230535
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1235 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The large scale pattern consists of an upper-level ridge over the
Southern US with zonal flow and embedded shortwave troughs across
the northern half of the US. Southwesterly low-level winds over the
Panhandles have brought in very warm 850mb temperatures which will
help bring temperatures into the 90s across the area. At the surface
this morning, a boundary has been moving south through Western
Kansas and has begun to move into the northern combined Panhandles.
Expect northerly winds and drier air behind this boundary.
Otherwise, a moist environment remains in place as the moisture from
former Tropical Storm Alberto lingers. Expecting the aforementioned
boundary to settle somewhere in the northern TX Panhandle this
afternoon as convective temperatures are expected to be reached. The
higher chance for showers and thunderstorms will be along the
boundary from mid-afternoon to early evening, at which point
convection should weaken from the loss to daytime heating. Forecast
soundings suggest there will be weak instability (MLCAPE between 250-
750 J/kg) and very weak wind shear, suggesting pulse storms are
favored with almost no threat for a severe thunderstorm. However...
high freezing levels above 12,000 feet and seasonable PWATs will
favor the potential for moderate to heavy rain. Some locations may
receive a quick tenth of an inch or two of rain, but with the lack
of a more robust forcing mechanism and the general lack of
meaningful wind shear, thinking that the longevity of heavy rain
should remain limited. Will have to watch if heavy rain falls over
the same area that received extensive rainfall earlier this week as
that may exacerbate ongoing flooding to some degree, but overall,
the threat for additional flash flooding appears low at this time
for today. Some showers may move into the western Panhandles tonight
from northeastern New Mexico.

Going into Sunday, an upper-level trough dips down into the Great
Lakes which causes the southern ridge to move westward and become
more centered on the area from the Southwestern US to the Southern
Plains. Temperatures generally warm a degree or two from Saturday`s
highs as very warm 850mb temperatures remain. The 22/12z CAMs
suggest a boundary may be leftover from Saturday`s convection that
could start to mix out through the morning and afternoon. Convective
evolution looks rather uncertain right now with CAMs in a state of
disagreement given the weak forcing. The development of some showers
and isolated thunderstorms could occur as early as the early
afternoon hours if aggressive daytime heating occurs along a remnant
boundary, but could be later in the afternoon as a result of storms
moving in from northeastern New Mexico. Instability looks even
weaker than today, and PWATs look more on par with late June.
Regardless, some heavy rain could occur with this activity. Again,
there are hints that some showers could linger into the night as
well.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Even hotter temperatures are expected Monday as very warm 850mb
temperatures... 30-32C... move into the area which will encourage
highs in the mid-90s to low-100s for much of the CWA. With as much
as a 10% chance for rain in the Oklahoma Panhandle, much if not all
of the Panhandles should stay dry Monday.

Tuesday looks to be the hottest day of the next week. 850mb
temperatures between 32C to 34C are expected in the western 2/3 of
the Panhandles which will encourage widespread temperatures in the
100s. In addition to the widespread 100s, dew points in the upper-
50s to mid-60s are possible across much of the area, with the upper
end of that range being off the Caprock. This has the potential to
bring heat indices at or above 105 degrees for a portion of the
area. Therefore, a Heat Advisory will certainly be in the realm of
possibilities for Palo Duro Canyon... but barring a significant
change in the guidance, one or more Heat Advisories may also be
needed for some of the eastern OK Panhandle/northeastern TX
Panhandle counties. Later in the afternoon and into the evening, a
weak shortwave trough may round the upper-level ridge which could
trigger some thunderstorms.

There is consensus that the upper-level ridge sticks around into
Wednesday, but 100 degree highs won`t be as widespread as Tuesday.
Diurnal thunderstorms could develop again in the late afternoon
hours as temperatures reach the convective temperature.

Models diverge some after Wednesday regarding what happens with the
upper-level ridge. The 22/12z GFS and GEFS ensemble mean wants to
weaken the ridge as an upper-level trough moves into the Pacific
Northwest on Thursday while the 22/00z ECMWF/EPS holds on to the
ridge. As a result, ECMWF brings the trough northeastward into
Canada which allows the ridge to strengthen over the Southern
Plains. Meanwhile, GFS/GEFS wants to flatten the ridge and have more
of a zonal flow over the central Plains as the trough moves east-
northeast. The 22/00z ECMWF/EPS solution would result in hot and dry
weather, while the 12z GFS/GEFS would result in either average to
slightly above average temperatures and nearly daily chances for
thunderstorms. Therefore... confidence is quite low regarding the
pattern later in the week.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions are forecast with this TAF cycle. Light winds
around 10 kts or less are forecast for most of the next 24 hours.
Some mid to high level clouds will remain across the region with
this TAF issuance. Some light showers or storms may develop around
00z, but confidence in a storm moving over the sites is too low to
mention in the TAF at this time.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                96  69  98  74 /  10  10   0  10
Beaver OK                  97  72 100  73 /   0  10   0  10
Boise City OK              94  64  97  67 /  30  10  10  10
Borger TX                 102  74 103  76 /  10  10   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              97  70 100  74 /  20  10   0  10
Canyon TX                  94  69  96  73 /  10  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               95  71  96  73 /  10   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 95  65  98  68 /  30  10   0  10
Guymon OK                  96  66 100  71 /  10  10   0  10
Hereford TX                96  69  99  73 /  10  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                99  74 101  75 /  10  10   0  10
Pampa TX                   98  71  99  73 /  10  10   0  10
Shamrock TX               100  72 100  74 /  10   0   0   0
Wellington TX             100  72 100  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...05