482
FXUS64 KAMA 061148
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
648 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 419 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The ridge in the jet stream has settled into the southwest CONUS.
A series of disturbances from the northwest will allow for
precipitation chances starting today and tomorrow, and lasting
into next week.

Today, a frontal boundary will march in from the north and stall
near the central Texas Panhandle this afternoon. By the evening
hours the front will continue to propagate southward. Highs today
for the I-40 corridor and locations south of it will hinge on
frontal placement, cloud coverage, and early convection. With
rising heights and good warm air advection, highs in the northern
zones will have no issues reaching the low to mid 90`s even after
the front passes through. However, the southern Texas Panhandle
may reach the lower 100`s if the front stalls and clouds cannot
reduce day time heating. Current short range guidance is confident
that the front should stall near the I-40 corridor and extend
northeast a tad, and thunderstorms have the highest chance to
begin in the late afternoon. Where the true point of contention
lies is within cloud coverage ahead of the boundary. If the
coverage is spread well ahead of the front, we may only see the
upper 90`s in the south. Temperatures at the Palo Duro Canyon may
be approaching 105 this afternoon, but cloud coverage could
prevent this too. Therefore, no Heat products appear necessary at
this time. Though, heat safety should continue to be practiced
since temperatures will still be well above average.

Clusters of thunderstorms should generate ahead of the frontal
boundary later this afternoon, and a few could become strong to
severe. The overall environment will not be supportive for
widespread severe storms, but a few could certainly pulse to that
level. Below average CAPE for this time of year, steep mid level
lapse rates, and poor bulk shear indicate the primary hazard will
be damaging winds and perhaps some hail. Given high forecasted
PWAT values and DCAPE, downbursts are also possible with today`s
convection and will be something we`ll need to watch closely.
Especially if the NAM products verify their soundings, as they
have much higher CAPE values compared to the rest of the guidance.

Tomorrow, high temperatures have better odds to reach the 100`s
across the whole CWA, and another wave of precipitation will move
in from the northwest late into the evening. Higher confidence of
PoP placement will be for the northern half of the CWA, and some
storms could also become severe. Friday`s environmental features
will be somewhat similar to today`s, so the same hazards should
apply.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 419 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

For Saturday through Tuesday, upper level ridging prevails just
to our west and over the western states while upper level troffing
resides across the eastern states. This places our forecast area
in some semblance of northwest flow aloft, which is generally a
favorable pattern for steering storms eastward and southeastward
into our area from the higher terrain of southeast Colorado and
eastern New Mexico. While medium range models are in basic agreement
on the overall pattern, they, along with ensemble members, continue
to differ some on location of the ridge axis relative to the southern
high plains. Given the general predicted pattern, the threat for
showers and thunderstorms will persist across the OK and TX Panhandles
from Saturday through Tuesday. Above normal temperatures are also
anticipated Saturday before a cold front tracks across the area
Saturday afternoon and evening, leading to cooler temperatures
Sunday through Tuesday. Looking further ahead, medium range models
and associated ensemble members suggest the pattern will become
progressive by Wednesday and Thursday such that the upper level
ridge of high pressure will likely move eastward over the plains
states while an upper level trof of low pressure tracks into the
western states by the middle part of next week. If this occurs,
above normal temperatures may return while rain chances diminish
across the forecast area for Wednesday and Thursday. The latest
trends seen in the NBM temperatures and pops fit the above scenario
based on the overall progged synoptic pattern and were included in
all periods of the long term forecast with little to no modifications
to the grids.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

TAFs continue as VFR through the 12Z period. As previously
discussed, flight rules may change with the potential for
thunderstorm activity at AMA later this afternoon and into the
late evening. A PROB30 group is still in affect from 22Z Thursday
to 02Z Friday. For the other sites, thunderstorms have a much
lower chance of forming in the vicinity; therefore, mentions have
not been made. Breezy northeasterly winds will be had at DHT and
GUY after the front moves through in the afternoon. Then light
southeasterly winds will return to all site by the end of the
period.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX               101  66  99  72 /  30  30  10  20
Beaver OK                  91  63 100  68 /  10  30  20  30
Boise City OK              88  61  99  63 /  10  20  20  20
Borger TX                 101  67 103  72 /  30  30  10  20
Boys Ranch TX             102  66 103  72 /  20  20  10  20
Canyon TX                 100  65  98  70 /  20  30  10  20
Clarendon TX               98  65  96  72 /  30  40  10  10
Dalhart TX                 94  62 101  65 /  10  10  10  20
Guymon OK                  90  62 101  65 /  10  20  20  30
Hereford TX               101  67 101  71 /  20  20  10  20
Lipscomb TX                94  64  97  70 /  20  30  10  30
Pampa TX                   96  65  97  71 /  30  40  10  20
Shamrock TX                96  65  96  72 /  30  40  10  10
Wellington TX             100  66  97  73 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...55