Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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235 FXUS64 KAMA 202308 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 608 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Showers with isolated storms continue to move into the southern Panhandles from Tropical Storm Alberto. Most of these are fairly stable showers and the lightning threat is pretty minimal at this time. There may be a little uptick in lightning as we move into the later afternoon to early evening hours, with increased heating and instability. Overall, if showers enhance into storms, the main concern will be lightning, but we could have brief intense rain rates given the tropical moisture advection over the area and PWAT`s approaching 1.50". The southerly flow will shift more southwesterly into Friday. The moisture will shift more to the western Panhandles for Friday, but it`s possible that we don`t see any showers or storms at all, as it may stay isolated to eastern NM. Weber && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Upper level trough moving across the northern CONUS will help suppress the high over the southeast CONUS. This will help transition the overall flow to a more zonal flow. Temperatures will gradually rise, but the chances of showers and storms will be limited. As we move into Sunday the trough will be further to the east over the Great Lakes and that will help the zonal flow transition to more northwest flow as the high rebuilds over the Four Corners. This will lead to a decent chance of showers and storms on Sunday evening, as there is a more pronounced shortwave embedded in that flow. Monday looks pretty similar to Sunday, but a weaker shortwave so a lower probability of showers or storms. Tuesday and Wednesday will once again have a better shortwave and a more amplified ridge associated, so temperatures will be even warmer, RH values will be quite high for our area leading to heat index`s in the 100-108 range across most area, as well as more scattered storms. Weber && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 559 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Moisture continues to move across the panhandles which is causing the clouds and isolated rain showers this evening. The rain showers are currently dissipating and should cease within the next couple of hours. Friday has a moderate chance of producing rain showers and even thunderstorms in the western panhandles. The odds of this occurring were only high enough to reflect in the KDHT TAF. As conditions become more stable overnight low cloud decks are likely to develop across the panhandles. Currently KDHT and KAMA are more likely to see these low clouds on station with a lesser chance at KGUY. The low clouds have a high chance to reduce conditions to MVFR with a low chance for reductions to IFR. Southerly gusty winds this evening have a high chance of weakening within the next few hours. These winds have a high chance of becoming gusty again during the late morning hours of Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 67 85 68 95 / 20 10 0 0 Beaver OK 67 89 69 97 / 10 0 0 0 Boise City OK 62 84 65 94 / 10 20 0 10 Borger TX 69 91 71 100 / 10 10 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 67 86 68 96 / 20 20 10 0 Canyon TX 65 83 66 92 / 20 10 0 0 Clarendon TX 67 85 68 93 / 20 10 0 0 Dalhart TX 63 84 64 95 / 20 20 10 0 Guymon OK 65 87 67 96 / 10 10 0 0 Hereford TX 67 85 67 95 / 30 20 0 0 Lipscomb TX 69 91 71 98 / 10 0 0 0 Pampa TX 67 87 69 96 / 10 10 0 0 Shamrock TX 69 89 69 96 / 10 0 0 0 Wellington TX 69 89 70 96 / 10 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...98