Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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381 FXUS64 KAMA 161048 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 548 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Above normal temperatures will continue through Friday, trending closer to or even slightly below normal in some locations for the weekend. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening across much of the area. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected across most of the area Tuesday afternoon and night, over the southeast Texas Panhandle Wednesday afternoon and evening, and then across all of the area Friday afternoon into Saturday night. A limited threat for severe weather is anticipated across the far northwest sections Tuesday afternoon and evening, with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. && .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A robust upper-level trough will continue to dive into the West Coast through today as an embedded weak shortwave trough traverses northeastward through the Rockies in Colorado this afternoon. A surface low will develop in eastern Colorado this afternoon, steepening the surface pressure gradient across the Panhandles therefore resulting in breezy conditions... primarily in the northwestern combined Panhandles. A north-to-south oriented quasi- stationary boundary will be set up in the eastern combined Panhandles through much of the day, and there may be enough surface convergence (most prevalent on the CAMs) to force a few isolated thunderstorms. If so, depending on the moisture content, there looks to be around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE east of the boundary which could support small hail and gusty winds. However, aside from the weak forcing, there will be a pocket of dry 850mb-700mb air that moves north through the eastern Panhandles in the morning into the early afternoon hours. Similar to yesterday, there is a question whether this dry airmass will stick around too long and mostly inhibit the chance for a shower or thunderstorm to develop. As such, have introduced 10% PoPs in the eastern combined Panhandles to cover the conditional thunderstorm chances this afternoon and into the early evening. Tuesday... the previously mentioned upper-level trough will take a negative tilt into eastern Utah, Colorado, and Wyoming. This will result in the development of a stronger low pressure system which results in a day with breezy southerly winds across the Panhandles but especially in the northwest. These southerly winds will work to bring in some slightly richer moisture into the Panhandles through the day. As the upper-level trough progresses northeastward through the afternoon, forcing for ascent arrives in eastern New Mexico and kicks off a line or multiple broken lines of thunderstorms that track into the Panhandles. The strongest forcing and wind shear looks to be in the northwestern combined Panhandles, and as such, that is where there is the potential for wind gusts up to 60 mph. The fate of the thunderstorms further south and east is more uncertain; it is more removed from the upper-level trough and the wind shear isn`t as strong. Therefore, it is plausible that the thunderstorms move into the western Panhandles and begin to fall apart as they move eastward through the night. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 There will likely be a relative minimum in precipitation chances for the OK and TX Panhandles on Wednesday and Thursday as the large scale western states upper level trof reloads with another upper level low pressure system progged to dig southward to around southern California by Thursday morning. This particular feature is expected to track east northeast towards the central plains region Friday through Sunday morning. As this occurs, the chance for showers and thunderstorms is expected to increase again over the area, mainly Friday afternoon and Friday night. The threat is progged to slowly diminish from west to east Saturday and Saturday night as this particular storm system heads into the central plains on a track north of the forecast area, with dry weather seen for Sunday. Medium range models and corresponding ensembles are in reasonable agreement with the overall upper level pattern with some differences noted in timing and track of the aforementioned storm system. That said, the NBM pops and temperatures remain plausible and continue to reflect the above synoptic scale reasoning. Further adjustments to the long term periods are anticipated as time gets closer and numerical weather models converge on a more common solution with respect to timing and track. 02 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 546 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. Southerly to south-southwesterly winds of around 15 kts gusting to 25 kts are expected this afternoon at all terminals during the daytime hours before the gusts begin to cease this evening, though winds will remain around 10 kts through the night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 93 65 92 64 / 10 0 20 50 Beaver OK 94 64 93 63 / 10 10 10 40 Boise City OK 89 61 88 57 / 10 10 30 50 Borger TX 97 66 96 65 / 10 10 10 60 Boys Ranch TX 93 64 92 62 / 10 10 30 60 Canyon TX 92 63 91 61 / 10 0 20 50 Clarendon TX 92 64 92 65 / 10 10 0 40 Dalhart TX 90 59 88 57 / 10 20 30 60 Guymon OK 93 64 92 60 / 10 10 20 60 Hereford TX 93 63 92 61 / 0 10 30 50 Lipscomb TX 94 65 93 65 / 10 10 0 40 Pampa TX 92 64 92 64 / 10 10 10 50 Shamrock TX 92 64 92 66 / 0 10 0 30 Wellington TX 94 65 94 67 / 0 10 0 30 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....02 AVIATION...52