Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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938 FXUS64 KAMA 232346 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 646 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - There is a 10-20% chance for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon in the southeastern Texas Panhandle. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated, though if a slightly more robust thunderstorm develops, gusty winds may occur. - Generally seasonable weather is expected Wednesday through Sunday with a very low chance for rain. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The Panhandles are now benefiting from the subsidence associated with the weather system that gave us all the weather this weekend, leading to a perfect day weather-wise; clear skies and below normal temperatures. An upper-level trough, currently subtly visible on upper-level water vapor satellite over southern Saskatchewan, will dig southeastward tonight and through tomorrow but will stay well off to the east of the Panhandles. A cold front along with some weak PVA will move into the Panhandles in the late morning hours. There may be some weak low- level moisture advection ahead of the cold front which may support the development of a few isolated showers or thunderstorms. Confidence is very low in this potential as the moisture content is still quite low in the wake of the potently cool/dry airmass that was introduced Sunday. Nonetheless, if a shower or thunderstorm can develop, it would be most favored in the southeastern TX Panhandle where moisture content is not abysmal (but still not great). Given there will be questionable moisture quality, potential instability is very much in question. If some decent instability can be realized, perhaps some gusty winds could occur but not anticipating any kind of severe thunderstorm potential. The cold front will move through the Panhandles in the afternoon hours. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The upper-level trough mentioned in the short-term discussion will move off to the east and become cut off from the jet stream, resulting in a stagnant upper-level pattern for the Panhandles with northerly to northeasterly flow aloft. Thursday, Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 is forecast to move toward the southeastern quadrant of the upper-level trough. Current guidance suggests there will be a Fujiwhara effect, and the then-ex-tropical cyclone will rotate around the upper-level trough through this weekend. Can`t entirely rule out an embedded disturbance within the flow aloft to bring a chance for a shower or thunderstorm throughout the long-term as we`re stuck in northerly flow aloft, but predicting that, and whether or not there will be sufficient moisture, is quite a challenging task at this range. Expecting generally seasonable weather in the long-term with a very low chance for rain, though a westward shift in the upper-level trough may increase the rain chances. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Dry and relatively quiet weather looks to hold for this evening and the overnight. One concern for the early morning hours of Tuesday will be the potential for low-level cloud decks or fog to form across the eastern portions of the Panhandles. However, confidence is not very high in its formation at this time nor in the potential for impacts to the terminals. For now, have kept terminals mention out of the current package with terminals holding at VFR for the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 55 85 53 82 / 0 10 0 0 Beaver OK 48 80 49 81 / 0 10 0 0 Boise City OK 50 78 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 54 88 54 86 / 0 10 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 51 85 51 84 / 0 10 0 0 Canyon TX 53 85 52 82 / 0 10 0 0 Clarendon TX 54 87 56 84 / 0 20 10 0 Dalhart TX 49 80 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 47 80 47 81 / 0 10 0 0 Hereford TX 53 86 52 83 / 0 10 0 0 Lipscomb TX 51 84 52 82 / 0 10 0 0 Pampa TX 53 85 52 82 / 0 10 0 0 Shamrock TX 54 87 55 84 / 0 20 10 0 Wellington TX 54 90 57 86 / 0 20 10 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...11