Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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544 FXUS64 KAMA 190749 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 249 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 As of the latest 07Z observations, we continue to watch very heavy rainfall rates from thunderstorms training within a vicinity of a surface boundary in the wake of a slow south moving cold front. This overrunning set up with decent H850 southerly flow advecting north over the front for thunderstorms to develop could linger past sunrise. In fact, as this front continues to move slowly south throughout the day, the focal point of this storm, in- conjunction with any other surface boundary collisions, i.e. the dryline now currently across eastern New Mexico will be the focus for convection later this afternoon, especially favoring areas currently not experiencing heavy rain for later on. At this time, the best chance for a severe thunderstorm this afternoon should be areas closest to the TX/NM stateline where large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding will be the main hazards. CAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg, effective shear around 20-25 kts and PWAT values over an inch should result in thunderstorm chances with heavy rainfall rates at times. Rain chances overall for the central and western TX Panhandle where the best chances exist should wrap up by midnight tonight as the main areas for lift move south and west of the CWA. High temperatures will be below average for late June with highs in the 70s/80s, but with Td values well into the 60s, it will fell quite muggy outside today. Instability drops off quite a bit for tomorrow, and so will our overall rain chances. Showers and thunderstorms due to diurnal heating are still expected. However, the periphery of the main H700-500 high pressure system will move further west into the eastern combined Panhandles. This will shift the better moisture transport axis further to the west and south mainly into the Texas South Plains and eastern New Mexico. We still cannot completely rule out thunderstorm chances for the southern and western Texas Panhandle by tomorrow afternoon, but overall severe chances remain low at this time. High temperatures tomorrow will remain cooler than average but also still muggy with highs ranging from the upper 70s in the western TX Panhandle where rain chances are highest to upper 80s in the eastern Panhandles where chances are the lowest. Meccariello && .LONG TERM ... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 As the tropical system from the Gulf Coast moves further NW along the Rio Grande with its more apparent anemic moisture source with time, rain chances will drop off for the Panhandles, with the potential exception of the far western TX Panhandle, near the best axis of moisture transport. Otherwise, under the H500 high pressure as it shifts from east to west across the southern CONUS, a nice day for most areas with high temperatures near average. Starting Saturday through the remainder of the long term forecast period, latest 19/00Z model and numerical guidance shows a quasi stationary H500 high pressure system in New Mexico. This will allow diurnally convection to develop based off a series of dirty ridge rollers that move off the NM/CO high terrain and into the Plains. Daily chances for thunderstorms are the result of this pattern. Chances overall are not that high (~30%), but each day favors the north central and northwestern combined Panhandles for thunderstorms in mean H500 NW flow, where strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall will be main hazard with any robust thunderstorm. High temperatures from this weekend into next week should be above average for late June. Meccariello && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 VFR conditions to start the 06Z TAF period at KAMA/KDHT and IFR conditions currently to start the TAF period at KGUY. +TSRA is expected for the first 1 to 3 hours of the TAF period for KGUY. Could see some TSRA conditions at KDHT as well before 12Z, and will AMD accordingly. MVFR cigs expected past 09Z at all TAF sites throughout the remainder of the TAF period, with some IFR cigs at times. Winds will be out of the southeast at 10-15 kts. The exception could be for TSRA conditions over TAF sites with strong and erratic winds at times. Could see VCTS conditions continuing at times for KDHT/KGUY through around 18Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 86 64 81 66 / 30 40 30 30 Beaver OK 86 64 87 66 / 60 30 10 10 Boise City OK 78 60 83 62 / 60 40 20 20 Borger TX 91 67 87 69 / 50 40 30 20 Boys Ranch TX 88 64 84 65 / 50 50 30 40 Canyon TX 85 63 79 64 / 30 40 30 40 Clarendon TX 85 64 78 65 / 20 20 30 20 Dalhart TX 84 60 83 62 / 60 50 30 30 Guymon OK 82 62 85 65 / 60 40 10 10 Hereford TX 87 64 80 65 / 30 40 40 40 Lipscomb TX 88 65 86 67 / 50 20 20 10 Pampa TX 86 64 82 66 / 40 30 20 20 Shamrock TX 88 66 83 67 / 20 20 30 20 Wellington TX 88 67 83 68 / 10 20 30 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...29