031
FXUS64 KAMA 290549
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1249 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

As of this afternoon latest observations sensors where seeing a
decent southwesterly breezy make its way across the Panhandles
thanks to a lee-side surface low present just to our northwest.
This low and associated breeze has help dry out the southwestern
Panhandles slightly and will be key to our expected heat for the
rest of the CWA. As it stands most models are still expecting the
Panhandles to hit the high 90s to triple digits, with many
locations already in the low to mid 90s this early afternoon.
Given this potential as well as the current present high humidity,
a Heat Advisory remains in places for the Palo Duro Canyon and
the eastern most counties of the combine Panhandles until 8 PM
tonight. As we head towards those later evening and overnight
hours, models are still on track for a trough to start pushing
into the area. This trough will cause the surface low to push off
and winds to decrease later tonight. On the other side, potential
for activity does remain present with the arrival of the upper-
level trough in the northern Panhandles. However, the recent CAMs
have not been very enthusiastic about the potential with a recent
runs only seeing a couple of showers late tonight. Still there is
some potential for a storm to pulse up enough to leave a severe
wind gust upon it collapse with models seeing DCAPE around 1500
J/kg.

Better chances for activity may have to wait till Saturday when
many of the models are expecting the associated frontal boundary
to move into the Panhandles. The positioning of this boundary will
very much determine the location of activity for the day as it
will serve as the main lifting mechanism for the day. As for the
potential for severe, once again this may solely focused on the
position of the boundary with many models seeing the best CAPE and
shear around it. As it stands most models are seeing MLCAPE values
run around 1500 J/kg with effective bulk running as high as 35 kt.
However, once a storms gets off the boundary those values
significantly drop off which will make it hard for something to
maintain itself. Instead, the threat for that day may once again
turn to flooding, especially if the models are correct and the
boundary stalls much like what happened a few weeks ago. While the
PWAT values are not as good as the last event, models are still
projecting 1.5 inch or greater present for most of the Panhandles.
Of course this will also play a factor in our temperatures for the
day as well. Should none of this come to pass, then it would be
possible for temperature to once again reach the triple digits
though current best chances of those values are only present in
the south.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Activity may look to follow into Sunday as models are still seeing
potential for the frontal boundary to remain stalled over the
Panhandles through the late afternoon time frame. Once again main
threat may still be flooding as showers and thunderstorms could be
a continuation of activity Saturday. However, a few severe storms
could still be present that afternoon. Regardless, the Panhandles
should begin to dry out later that evening with the exit of the
trough and frontal boundary. Heading into the Holiday workweek,
Monday and Tuesday will look to be dry as the upper-level high
pressure system moves back over the Panhandles for both days. This
will allow temperatures to once again climb with potential to see
widespread triple digit temperatures Tuesday. However, dont
expect this to last into the Forth of July as many model are
seeing a new system move across starting Wednesday. This trough
will aid in pushing the upper-level high back east and in turn
open the Panhandles back up to good low-level moisture. Expect
PWAT values to once again rise above 1.5 inches for most locations
with chances of showers and thunderstorms present each afternoon
clear into the Holiday weekend. Meanwhile, temperatures will
slightly lower with all the expected activity, but still look for
most locations to be in the 90s for the rest of the period.

Scoleri

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

TAFs are mostly VFR for the 06Z period. Thunderstorms are
possible at all sites today, and may bring impacts starting in
the afternoon for AMA and later into the night for DHT and GUY.
Confidence is high enough to introduce PROB30 groups at all sites
today. Winds will be breezy from the north for DHT and GUY this
afternoon after a front moves through. Gusts up to 25 kts are
possible.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                98  72  93  73 /  30  40  20  10
Beaver OK                  93  67  90  72 /  20  60  30  10
Boise City OK              88  64  89  69 /  30  60  30  10
Borger TX                 101  73  97  76 /  30  50  20  10
Boys Ranch TX              97  71  95  73 /  20  40  20  10
Canyon TX                  96  71  92  71 /  20  30  10  10
Clarendon TX               97  73  93  73 /  20  30  20  10
Dalhart TX                 93  67  93  68 /  20  50  20   0
Guymon OK                  91  66  91  70 /  20  60  20  10
Hereford TX                98  71  95  71 /  20  30  10   0
Lipscomb TX                97  70  92  73 /  20  50  30  10
Pampa TX                   98  71  92  72 /  30  40  20  10
Shamrock TX               100  73  95  73 /  20  30  20  10
Wellington TX             101  75  96  75 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...55