773
FXUS64 KAMA 171902
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
202 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

- Severe thunderstorms possible in the west. Damaging winds and
  perhaps quarter size hail.  Heavy rain.

- Isolated severe storms possible in the southeast Wednesday
  afternoon.

- More thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Thunderstorms have developed across the mountains of New Mexico
early this afternoon.  These storms should continue to increase in
coverage as the lift from the base of the upper level positively
tilted trough moves northeast across eastern New Mexico atop a low
level moist airmass.  A line of thunderstorms is expected to
approach the western Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles by late this
afternoon.  Some of these thunderstorms may be severe as they cross
over into the western Panhandles with damaging winds the main
threat.  Some hailstones to the size of quarters will also be
possible.  As the storms move toward the central Panhandles they are
expected to weaken as the upper level lift from the trough will be
moving northeast into Kansas and instability will be weakening.
However, storms could linger all the way across the eastern
Panhandles late tonight.  Gusty southerly winds this afternoon are
expected to decrease some this evening. However, a low level jet may
keep some areas gusting through much of the night even outside of
thunderstorms.

On Wednesday, a surface trough is expected to lie across the
southeast Texas Panhandle.  This trough may become a focus for
additional thunderstorm development in the afternoon into the
evening.  Again, a storm or two may become severe with damaging
winds the main thereat given the adequate shear and instability.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Thursday remains dry at this time as a ridge pokes up over Texas
ahead of the next upper level low moving into California.  Showers
and thunderstorms should return to the Panhandles Friday and
Saturday ahead and along with the passage of this upper low as it
moves through the 4-corners region and out into northwest Kansas by
Saturday night.  A cold front should push through the Panhandles
Saturday night behind this system effectively shutting off the rain
for Sunday and Monday.

Highs through Friday are expected to remain above average.  Highs
may remain around average on Saturday depending on how cloudy and
rainy it ends up being.  Sunday and Monday should then be below
average behind the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over eastern New Mexico this
afternoon and then they are expected to move east across the TAF
sites late this afternoon and this evening. The greatest
confidence is at DHT for a thunderstorm, so have added a TEMPO
group there. Gusty winds will be possible with the strongest
storms. Storms should be east of the TAF sites by midnight and
skies will remain VFR for the rest of the forecast. Gusty
southerly winds this afternoon will decrease later tonight behind
the thunderstorms. Southerly winds will then pick up again at 15
to 20 knots with higher gusts by late Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                65  93  67  95 /  50  20   0   0
Beaver OK                  64  95  66  95 /  50  10  10   0
Boise City OK              57  88  55  89 /  60   0   0   0
Borger TX                  66  98  68 100 /  50  20   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              62  93  63  95 /  60  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  63  92  65  94 /  50  20   0   0
Clarendon TX               65  95  68  97 /  30  20  20   0
Dalhart TX                 57  88  56  90 /  70   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  60  92  58  93 /  60   0   0   0
Hereford TX                63  93  63  96 /  60  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                66  95  69  98 /  40  20  20   0
Pampa TX                   65  93  68  96 /  40  20  10   0
Shamrock TX                67  95  68  98 /  20  20  20   0
Wellington TX              68  98  70 100 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...15