123
FXUS64 KAMA 240529 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1229 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

- There is a 10-20% chance for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon in
the southeastern Texas Panhandle. Severe thunderstorms are not
anticipated, though if a slightly more robust thunderstorm develops,
gusty winds may occur.

- Generally seasonable weather is expected Wednesday through
  Sunday with a very low chance for rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The Panhandles are now benefiting from the subsidence associated
with the weather system that gave us all the weather this weekend,
leading to a perfect day weather-wise; clear skies and below normal
temperatures.

An upper-level trough, currently subtly visible on upper-level water
vapor satellite over southern Saskatchewan, will dig southeastward
tonight and through tomorrow but will stay well off to the east of
the Panhandles. A cold front along with some weak PVA will move into
the Panhandles in the late morning hours. There may be some weak low-
level moisture advection ahead of the cold front which may support
the development of a few isolated showers or thunderstorms.
Confidence is very low in this potential as the moisture content is
still quite low in the wake of the potently cool/dry airmass that
was introduced Sunday. Nonetheless, if a shower or thunderstorm can
develop, it would be most favored in the southeastern TX Panhandle
where moisture content is not abysmal (but still not great). Given
there will be questionable moisture quality, potential instability
is very much in question. If some decent instability can be
realized, perhaps some gusty winds could occur but not anticipating
any kind of severe thunderstorm potential. The cold front will move
through the Panhandles in the afternoon hours.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The upper-level trough mentioned in the short-term discussion will
move off to the east and become cut off from the jet stream,
resulting in a stagnant upper-level pattern for the Panhandles with
northerly to northeasterly flow aloft. Thursday, Potential Tropical
Cyclone 9 is forecast to move toward the southeastern quadrant of
the upper-level trough. Current guidance suggests there will be a
Fujiwhara effect, and the then-ex-tropical cyclone will rotate
around the upper-level trough through this weekend. Can`t entirely
rule out an embedded disturbance within the flow aloft to bring a
chance for a shower or thunderstorm throughout the long-term as
we`re stuck in northerly flow aloft, but predicting that, and
whether or not there will be sufficient moisture, is quite a
challenging task at this range. Expecting generally seasonable
weather in the long-term with a very low chance for rain, though a
westward shift in the upper-level trough may increase the rain
chances.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Skies are expected to remain VFR. Southwest winds around 10 knots
will turn to the north at 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts behind
a cold front that will move through the TAF sites between 14Z and
18Z. Winds will then decrease with sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                85  53  82  52 /  10   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  80  49  81  48 /  10   0   0   0
Boise City OK              78  48  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  88  54  86  52 /  10   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              85  51  84  51 /  10   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  85  52  82  50 /  10   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               87  56  84  54 /  20  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 80  47  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  80  47  81  47 /  10   0   0   0
Hereford TX                86  52  83  52 /  10   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                84  52  82  51 /  10   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   85  52  82  51 /  10   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                87  55  84  53 /  20  10   0   0
Wellington TX              90  57  86  54 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...15