814
FXUS64 KAMA 291812
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
112 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Perturbations north of the 500 mb ridge are forecast to progress
through the High Plains today and parts of tomorrow. This will
spark thunderstorms along the boundary this afternoon, with
additional waves moving in from northwest through the rest of this
evening and perhaps even continuing into the afternoon on Sunday.

Some storms within the first 24 hours may become severe with
damaging winds and torrential rainfall as the primary threats. A
sufficient environment exists today for strong thunderstorms to
form. With marginal 0-6 km bulk shear values, (25-35 kts), storms
may encounter a bit of trouble when sustaining their strength for
long periods of time. Even still, a multicellular storm mode is
anticipated today, which would suggest storms could go through
different phases of strength and may pulse near or above severe
limits for extended periods of time.

High temperatures today should range between the upper 80`s to
the triple digits. The northern Panhandles are favored to lean
towards the cooler highs for today since the cold front is
forecast to pass through those places before peak heating. Areas
south of the frontal boundary should reach the upper 90`s and
100`s since it may stall in the central Texas Panhandle this
afternoon before finally passing all the way though by the
night time hours. A Heat Advisory is already in effect today for
the Palo Duro Canyon, with the potential to see temperatures at
105 degrees and heat index values may reach up to 109.

By Sunday, most of the thunderstorm operations should cease in
the morning hours. However, HREF ensemble guidance suggest that
an additional band of showers may move in from the south and light
to moderate showers have a chance to continue into the afternoon
hours. Given these parameters, Sunday high temperatures should be
the coolest of the new week, ranging from the upper 80`s to mid
90`s.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The upper level ridge will build over the area Monday and Tuesday
before exiting east for the rest of the extended. The overall
synopsis includes shower and thunderstorm potential Tuesday night
and onward. Barring a few intermittent fronts, daytime highs will
still be above average most days of the new week. Considering how
most of the thunderstorm activity will occur later in the day and
during the overnight hours, high temperatures will have the
opportunity to reach the upper 90`s and triple digits through the
extended. Tuesday in particular looks to be the hottest day of the
week, and heat related products may need to be considered and
implemented down the line.

Some minor adjustments have been made to Tuesday`s highs, namely
increases for the Palo Duro Canyon since high temperatures look
to be the primary concern for the day. Otherwise, NBM values for
PoPs alongside other parameters were reviewed and accepted. Expect
changes to begin once the days reach within 72 hours of the
forecast period, as mesoscale feature become more defined.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Two concerns for this TAF cycle include thunderstorms in the area
and late night and morning low CIGS. Abundant moisture will
interact with a soon to be stalling frontal boundary and upper
level disturbance to produce at least SCT TSTMS by late aftn or
early evening. Initial storms will be near the boundary near or
just north of Amarillo, with better chances spreading behind the
front into the northern Panhandles in the evening and overnight
hours. All sites have potential for impacts, but DHT and GUY have
greatest chances and some storms in the area will have potential
to produce SVR level winds and localized flooding. Low CIGs near
IFR ranges are expected to spread into the area behind the front
in NE flow across the northeast Panhandles and GUY has high enough
probability for IFR CIGs that this has been included in the TAF
Sun morning. Some MVFR visibility is also expected again mainly
near GUY and adjacent areas to the E/NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                70  93  72  97 /  30  20   0   0
Beaver OK                  66  86  69  99 /  60  40  10   0
Boise City OK              62  90  68  96 /  70  20   0   0
Borger TX                  71  97  75 103 /  40  20   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              68  96  71  99 /  40  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  70  93  70  95 /  30  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               72  93  72  97 /  20  20   0   0
Dalhart TX                 65  93  67  98 /  60  20   0   0
Guymon OK                  64  88  69  99 /  70  30  10   0
Hereford TX                70  95  70  98 /  30  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                69  89  72 100 /  50  30   0   0
Pampa TX                   69  92  71  98 /  30  20   0   0
Shamrock TX                73  95  74  99 /  20  20   0   0
Wellington TX              75  96  74 100 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...88