Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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231 FXUS64 KAMA 222333 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 633 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - Cool, Fall-like temperatures today with showers and thunderstorms in the southeastern Texas Panhandle this afternoon. - Temperatures warm up through Tuesday toward average. - Forecast confidence decreases significant beyond Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely continue in the southeastern half of the Texas Panhandle throughout today, but should gradually come to an end from northwest to southeast as dry air moves in from the north. Expecting today to feature cool weather with temperatures in the 50s and 60s... after the summer we`ve experienced, this is quite the change. Clouds will clear from northwest to southeast through the night. Monday, the Panhandles will be in the left entrance region which implies subsidence over the region. Expect clear skies with very little to no chance for rain as temperatures warm back up into the 70s. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 An upper-level trough will dig southeastward from the Northern Plains on Tuesday, introducing northwesterly flow that changes to northerly flow. There is an outside chance for a shower or thunderstorm in the eastern combined Panhandles as the trough and associated forcing skirts off to the east. After Tuesday, confidence in the forecast greatly diminishes. This upper-level trough may cut off from the jet stream as a potential tropical system moves north into the Gulf of Mexico, while the Panhandles remain sandwiched between the cut-off trough and a ridge over the Four Corner States. The interaction between the potential tropical system will be interesting to watch going forward as the 12z ECMWF and GFS show a fujiwhara effect between the two systems, but any kind of potential impacts to the Panhandles is anybody`s guess at this point. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 MVFR conditions linger at AMA for a few more hours this evening. Ceilings are forecast to lift by 02Z or slightly sooner. Windy surface winds are also expected to continue at all sites till the 02Z to 03Z timeframe. From there, light and variable winds will overtake all sites alongside clearing skies. Rangel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 47 77 54 83 / 10 0 0 20 Beaver OK 44 73 49 79 / 0 0 0 20 Boise City OK 42 75 49 76 / 0 0 0 10 Borger TX 47 80 55 86 / 0 0 0 20 Boys Ranch TX 45 78 52 83 / 0 0 0 20 Canyon TX 46 76 52 83 / 10 0 0 30 Clarendon TX 49 75 54 84 / 20 0 0 30 Dalhart TX 42 75 47 79 / 0 0 0 10 Guymon OK 40 75 48 78 / 0 0 0 10 Hereford TX 46 78 53 84 / 10 0 0 20 Lipscomb TX 47 74 51 82 / 10 0 0 20 Pampa TX 46 75 53 82 / 10 0 0 20 Shamrock TX 50 75 54 84 / 30 10 0 30 Wellington TX 52 77 55 86 / 50 10 0 30 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...55