619
FXUS64 KAMA 231911
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
211 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

- There is a 10-20% chance for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon in
the southeastern Texas Panhandle. Severe thunderstorms are not
anticipated, though if a slightly more robust thunderstorm develops,
gusty winds may occur.

- Generally seasonable weather is expected Wednesday through
  Sunday with a very low chance for rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The Panhandles are now benefiting from the subsidence associated
with the weather system that gave us all the weather this weekend,
leading to a perfect day weather-wise; clear skies and below normal
temperatures.

An upper-level trough, currently subtly visible on upper-level water
vapor satellite over southern Saskatchewan, will dig southeastward
tonight and through tomorrow but will stay well off to the east of
the Panhandles. A cold front along with some weak PVA will move into
the Panhandles in the late morning hours. There may be some weak low-
level moisture advection ahead of the cold front which may support
the development of a few isolated showers or thunderstorms.
Confidence is very low in this potential as the moisture content is
still quite low in the wake of the potently cool/dry airmass that
was introduced Sunday. Nonetheless, if a shower or thunderstorm can
develop, it would be most favored in the southeastern TX Panhandle
where moisture content is not abysmal (but still not great). Given
there will be questionable moisture quality, potential instability
is very much in question. If some decent instability can be
realized, perhaps some gusty winds could occur but not anticipating
any kind of severe thunderstorm potential. The cold front will move
through the Panhandles in the afternoon hours.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The upper-level trough mentioned in the short-term discussion will
move off to the east and become cut off from the jet stream,
resulting in a stagnant upper-level pattern for the Panhandles with
northerly to northeasterly flow aloft. Thursday, Potential Tropical
Cyclone 9 is forecast to move toward the southeastern quadrant of
the upper-level trough. Current guidance suggests there will be a
Fujiwhara effect, and the then-ex-tropical cyclone will rotate
around the upper-level trough through this weekend. Can`t entirely
rule out an embedded disturbance within the flow aloft to bring a
chance for a shower or thunderstorm throughout the long-term as
we`re stuck in northerly flow aloft, but predicting that, and
whether or not there will be sufficient moisture, is quite a
challenging task at this range. Expecting generally seasonable
weather in the long-term with a very low chance for rain, though a
westward shift in the upper-level trough may increase the rain
chances.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated through this forecast period. Winds
will be mostly light and variable through today and most of
tonight. Winds will then turn northwesterly trending toward
northerly by the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                55  85  53  82 /   0  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  48  80  49  81 /   0  10   0   0
Boise City OK              50  78  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  54  88  54  86 /   0  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              51  85  51  84 /   0  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  53  85  52  82 /   0  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               54  87  56  84 /   0  20  10   0
Dalhart TX                 49  80  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  47  80  47  81 /   0  10   0   0
Hereford TX                53  86  52  83 /   0  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                51  84  52  82 /   0  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   53  85  52  82 /   0  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                54  87  55  84 /   0  20  10   0
Wellington TX              54  90  57  86 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52