511
FXUS63 KAPX 221053
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
653 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and some storms return today and tonight, with locally
  heavy rain in nw lower MI

- Cooler wx this upcoming work week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Pattern/synopsis: Cold front slowly moving across western upper
MI and central WI. Convection is occurring ahead of the front,
mostly from ne WI and points s and w. The front crosses northern
MI this afternoon and early evening.

Forecast: Marine fog/stratus continues to cover parts of ne
lower and eastern upper MI, especially near Lk Huron. That seems
likely to last until this afternoon, when winds veer nw to n
behind the cold front.

Mid-high clouds cover much of northern lower MI (excepting the
ne lower MI coast), not so much eastern upper MI yet. As we move
thru the morning, the boundary is progged to sharpen, and
precip should gradually shift behind the front. That will slow
eventual precip onset, though some (mostly light) showers will
occur in nw lower and eastern upper MI. A band of more
substantial precip, supported by lifting moist and somewhat
unstable air, across the frontal boundary. Lapse rates are not
especially steep, and MuCape values are only around 200-300j/kg.
That will support thunder, but severe is not expected. But a
narrow axis of PWAT values exceeding 1.5" will contribute to
healthy rainfall rates at times. Have QPF today of 0.50-1.00"
across a good portion of nw lower MI. This won`t result in hydro
problems.

Precip continues eastward tonight, and by dawn only ne lower MI
has a chance of lingering showers. Northerly breezes kick in
behind the front late today and tonight, and much cooler temps
press in (aided by rain-cooled temps). QPF looks to be lower
tonight, as high as 0.50" near Saginaw Bay.

Max temps today range from mid-60s eastern upper MI, to near 80f
near Saginaw Bay. Lows tonight in the 40s to near 50f.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Current midlevel flow over the Great Lakes region continues active
weather at times as upstream troughing over Northern Minnesota
returns showers and storms to the CWA. Northern branch flow
currently over Canada will push southward, resulting in a cooler
air mass to settle into the region this week.

Aformentioned troughing currently overhead will be centered over
Southern Hudson Bay at the start of the long term. A secondary weak
trough riding along southern branch flow will moves through the
Midwest this Tuesday, continuing chances for an additional round of
showers as it passes the CWA. Conditions then turn drier for the
second half of the work week as upstream riding support surface high
pressure this Wednesday through the remainder of the long term.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

Showers linger this Monday and Tuesday. Cooler air settles into
Northern Michigan this week: No impactful weather is expected
through the entirety of the forecast period. Only active weather
will be from a few scattered showers this Tuesday as
aformentioned southern branch embedded troughing moves across
the CWA. Ensembles depict little if any measurable precipitation
am most forcing will be along the Ohio Valley. Most focus for
the long term period is a cool Canadian air mass returning
climatologically average temperatures this week. Highs will
remain in the upper 60s to low 70s starting this Monday through
the entire work week while overnight lows will remain around 50
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 653 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Fog/stratus expected to persist this morning near Lk Huron,
bringing LIFR conditions to APN and perhaps at times CIU.
Otherwise, mid/high clouds will thicken and lower, and chances
for rain will increase today. A band of showers with a few
embedded TSRA is expected to slowly cross the area from west to
east beginning at midday. All TAF sites will have a mention of
TSRA for a few hours. At about that time, conditions also
expected to lower to IFR at all sites for at least a few hours.
Improvement occurs tonight. Lightish southerly winds this
morning, will become northerly and somewhat breezy by late today
into tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Monday
     for LHZ346>348.
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Monday for LMZ344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT
     Monday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...JZ