Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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055 FXUS63 KAPX 131745 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 145 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated severe storms will be possible across northern Michigan this afternoon. - Temperatures building next week to potential record breaking highs. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1101 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Not a whole lot going on at the moment with earlier convection now out of the region. Wait and see mode right now with incoming surface cold front set to cross the area from north to south later this afternoon and evening. CAMS/high resolution models continue to vary on just how active will we get. Do expect at least a few isolated storms to develop by mid- afternoon due to decent instability. Strong wind fields bring the potential for damaging wind gusts. No big changes to the forecast at this point. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 349 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Pattern Synopsis: Low amplitude shortwave/jet max looks to punch across the Great Lakes today as the parent longwave trough amplifies over the region into Friday. Forcing provided aloft will result in surface low pressure deepening along an advancing cold front from Quebec back across the central Great Plains, which is set to swing across the area this afternoon. Forecast Details: Isolated severe storms possible this afternoon -- Ongoing thunderstorms across parts of northern Michigan will continue to track east and gradually weaken with time this morning amidst fumes of elevated instability. Severe storms are not anticipated through the morning hours. A break in thunderstorm chances is anticipated later this morning before additional scattered storms develop along/ahead of the aforementioned cold front this afternoon. The best chances for storms seem to be split, with one area of higher storm chances coming across the eastern U.P./Tip of the Mitt and another south of M-72. Thunderstorms this afternoon will be in the presence of strong buoyancy (~2,000 J/kg MLCAPE) and deep-layer shear (~40 kts). Forecast hodographs display shear that is relatively evenly distributed through the vertical profile, increasing the likelihood for organized storms later today -- a few of which could be strong to severe. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible with any strong storms that develop. While not necessarily expected, a tornado or two will be possible with any strong storms as well. These thoughts are echo`d by SPC as the Day 1 Convective Outlook highlights a 2% tornado probability area across most of the northern lower peninsula. Otherwise, temperatures looks to warm into the low to mid 80s for many areas south of the bridge today before the cold front swings through, dropping temperatures back into the upper 40s and low 50s tonight. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 349 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Midlevel zonal flow with an internal jet maxima across the northern half of the CONUS will continue chances of showers and storms at times due to embedded height disturbances. Ridging currently over southwestern U.S will progress over upper Midwest at the start of the forecast period and build surface level high pressure. Biggest focus for the entirety of the long term is the temperatures building well above normal as the aformentioned midlevel flow advects northward. Chances of precipitation is still expected at times with convective storms along with weak frontal passages but diurnal heating to near record breaking temperatures through the majority of the work week. Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: -Temperatures building next week to potential record breaking highs: Surface high pressure will build at the start of the long term resulting in dry and pleasant weather pattern this weekend. Clear skies and sinking air will result in cool overnight lows (especially Friday night) and daytime highs in the upper 70s to low 80s for the weekend. Attention quickly turns toward the start of the next work week as midlevel ridging strengthens across the eastern half of the U.S allowing for hot and humid air to build across the CWA (humid for northern Michigan). Long range guidance is hinting at Tuesday and Wednesday being the hottest during the entirety of the long term with daytime highs near 90 degrees for most locations while overnight lows remain in the upper 60s/low 70s. Enough atmospheric energy will trigger come convective showers and thunderstorms at times next week that would aid in cooling localized locations, but overall northern Michigan will remain warm until a cold front finally puts an end to the heat around the Thursday timeframe. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 140 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 A cold front will move across the region this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected with the front. The best chances for storms appears to be at CIU (early afternoon) and PLN (mid afternoon). There will be lesser chances for storms at APN, TVC and MBL later this afternoon into early this evening. Cigs and vsbys are expected to remain mainly vfr through the taf period except possibly lower in any storms. CIU could see brief MVFR cigs late tonight/early Friday. Southwest winds will be a bit gusty this afternoon, shift into the northwest by this evening then become light tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...AJS SHORT TERM...DJC LONG TERM...SJC AVIATION...AJS