933
FXUS63 KAPX 250300
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain continues tonight, few rumbles of thunder?

- Quiet weather for the rest of the week into the weekend

- Well above normal high temperatures into early next week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Wide swath of showery activity will continue to move north and
northeast through the night in response to lift in the form of
upper/sfc low pressure system. Evening 00Z sounding is rather
impressive for this time of year, with deep saturation and FZL
~10kft. Thus, any of the more robust showers could produce some
efficient rains. Minimal instability but enough for a few
rumbles of thunder will be possible, mainly east of 75 and close
to the Lake Huron shoreline. Otherwise, saturated and foggy
conditions through the morning hours, with gradual clearing from
west to east through the day on Wednesday. Many more details
below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 338 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Developing low pressure to our southwest over IL...as additional
energy continues to dig into the Mid MS Valley just to its west.
Focused band of rain expected to continue to hang out near the 131
corridor this afternoon into this evening along a subtle inverted
trough axis...but eastward motion of the overall pattern suggests
this will ultimately shift eastward as well overnight...with surface
low expected to track into the Thumb and turn ever so slightly
northward into Lake Huron going into Wednesday...before departing
the region. Best chance for some rumbles of thunder over NE Lower
this evening...where guidance soundings suggest better instability
will be present. Rainy/dreary conditions expected to continue over
much of the region (though the EUP could remain largely
quiet)...with potential for some fog to develop again as winds
should remain on the lighter side tonight with the trough axis
passing through. Improving conditions expected Wednesday following
departure of trough axis during the day...as high pressure begins to
build back into the area. Still seasonable Wednesday, with highs
largely in the 60s.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Continued focus of rainfall over the 131 corridor toward Lake MI
just south of our area has produced upwards of 1-2 inches thus far
over parts of SW Lower...and will have to keep an eye on this going
forward...as it may lead to increased rainfall totals over parts of
Manistee/Wexford counties if it makes it in there this
afternoon/tonight. Do think there will be some rain over this way
through the remainder of the daylight hours into early
tonight...though the great uncertainty is in how much of the rain
ends up getting squeezed out over us...largely related to residence
time over any areas. Currently thinking the slightly more
progressive idea this evening compared to the current setup just to
our southwest will keep rainfall totals from being as dramatic as
elsewhere...but will be something to keep an eye on overnight.
Meanwhile...NW-SE oriented band of precip stretching from Oscoda
toward Atlanta this afternoon has been rather persistent the last
hour or so...and do think this kind of thing could try to persist
over NE Lower and parts of the EUP...and could become enhanced as
deeper moisture slips overhead going into tonight, although do have
some concerns that the incoming mid/high clouds could reduce the
amount of diurnal heating/instability that has been playing into the
Sunrise Side activity.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 338 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

That about puts a wrap on our "active" weather pattern, though some
spots saw very little rainfall over the last few days. Strong
ridging currently across the west coast moves east and folds over
across the Great Lakes late this week into this weekend. Meanwhile,
extended guidance is in good agreement that an upper level low sets
up shop across the Tennessee Valley later this week. The interaction
between this upper level low, tropical moisture from the tropical
system moving through the Gulf of Mexico and the ridge over us is
rather complex. The upper level low could eventually head north but
it could also fall apart or turn off to the east before it reaches
this far north. A better chance for rain is likely from a northern
stream short wave approaching from the northwest early next week.
Due to uncertainty, will continue with slight chance pops for later
Sunday but wouldn`t be surprised if it took until Monday night or
Tuesday before the region sees its next actual rainfall.
Temperatures will be well above normal (by 10 to 15 degrees) with
highs in the 70s to near 80 into Sunday (may as well enjoy it while
you still can). Comfortable at night with lows in the 40s to low
50s. It does look like it will eventually turn cooler as we head
into the middle of next week (which is just beyond the scope of this
forecast).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

ISO to SCT SHRA expected the rest of tonight and into the
morning hrs on Wednesday. ISO TSRA possible, mainly east of
I-75, and close to the Lake Huron Shoreline. Best chance to see
ISO TSRA will be for KAPN between 04-09Z, but low confidence iat
this time, thus currently no mention of VCTS, but something to
monitor. Due to the saturated conditions, mix of BR/FG tonight
with BKN- OVC 003-010 CIGs. Mix of IFR to LIFR CIGs and VIS most
locations tonight, gradually improving through the day on
Wednesday with dry and VFR conditions taking hold once more.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JLD
SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...JLD