488
FXUS63 KAPX 171730
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
130 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures and rain-free weather persists, leading to
  elevated fire danger at times this week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Dry and warm conditions on the way today with high fire danger.
Cool conditions tonight with isolated pockets of fog. Current
forecast remains on track, see discussion below for more
details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Pattern/synopsis: Ridging extends into the central Great Lakes
from the east. Weak return/southerly flow here in northern MI.

Forecast: More of the same. We will mix up into some drier air
as the day proceeds, making things a touch breezier and drier
this afternoon. Little cloud cover, except perhaps some
afternoon cu in western Chip/Mack Cos. High temps should have
little difficulty exceeding most guidance, with mostly mid 80s
give or take. Lows tonight will be cool, probably a hair cooler
than this morning. Mid 40s to mid 50s most commonly. Patchy fog
again possible late.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

A fairly active pattern across the CONUS in the upper levels with
three closed lows impacting various regions. The state of MI is one
of the few who get left of out the precipitation and wind Wednesday
through the weekend due to high pressure persisting through Friday.
Warm temperatures, hazy skies, and light winds (with a lake breeze
in the afternoon hours) will continue to be seen Wednesday and
Thursday. Friday, chances have increased with skies filling with mid
to higher level clouds, which could limit afternoon temperatures by
a few degrees.

Global deterministic guidance is finally agreeing on some moisture
riding over the upper ridge and reaching northern MI Friday night
into Saturday. Any rain that does fall will not amount to much
(maybe a few hundredths of an inch). Global ensembles are a little
more uncertain on the next chance for precipitation, with 23% of
members saying light rain by early Saturday and the majority of the
remaining members holding off until Sunday. Any rain chances yield
light accumulations across northern lower and eastern upper, meaning
its unlikely to make a dent in drier conditions of late.

More possible rain early next week, however this pattern has a lot
of moving pieces to it which makes early next week`s forecast highly
uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Mainly VFR through the period, although isolated pockets of FG will
be possible tonight into early Wednesday morning, especially
across southeast portions of northern lower Michigan. Winds
light AOB 5 to 10KTs through Wednesday, direction 090-150.
Clouds SKC- SCT250 generally. Dry conditions persist.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JLD
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...JLD