110
FXUS63 KAPX 231300
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
900 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances of shower and possibly a few thunderstorms...
  especially this afternoon and evening

- Near seasonal temperatures with periodic shower and
  thunderstorm chances through this week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Kinda an early fall-like feel and look to the weather this
morning...with northwest winds, areas of drizzle/light showers,
and temperatures mostly in the lower and middle 60s. Should see
some slow improvement heading into this afternoon as low level
moisture profiles thin some. Still looking at the threat for
some scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder or
two...especially across eastern upper and northeast lower
Michigan with continued cooling aloft and the development of
some meager mixed layer cape. Shouldn`t be too big a deal at
all, with nothing severe expected. Temperatures will slowly
recover, with highs expected to top out in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

     Lingering chances of showers and storms today into this evening...

High Impact Weather Potential...The chance for non-severe
thunderstorms will linger today into this evening.

Complex area of low pressure continues to make its way eastward thru
Lower Michigan early this morning. Area of widespread convection
that impacted Northern Lower Michigan last night has exited our
CWA...taking with it the potential for heavy rainfall. In
coordination with both GRR and DTX...have cancelled the Flood
Warning for all of Northern Lower Michigan. Another area of
widespread shower activity is pivoting thru Upper Michigan attm
driven by an upper level trough axis combined with wrap-around
moisture on the back side of the surface low.

Surface low center will push thru Lake Huron this morning...reaching
SW Quebec this afternoon. A stronger upper level trough axis will
swing thru Northern Michigan this afternoon and evening...and
combined with another shot of synoptic moisture...with extend
chances of showers and possibly a few storms thru this evening
across much of Northern Michigan. Greatest chances of precip will be
across Eastern Upper...far Northern and NE Lower Michigan this
afternoon into early evening where lift and moisture will be
maximized during peak diurnal heating/instability. Lack of
sufficient instability will preclude any possibility of strong/severe
storms.

High temps this afternoon will be mainly in the upper 60s to lower
70s... with low temps tonight cooling into the 50s across most of
our CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Northwest will be overhead as a
closed low exits the state and continues east Monday. Drier air will
be moving in, allowing sunny skies and temperatures to warm in the
afternoon hours. A northern Rockies lee side trough will move
straight east as zonal flow alfot over the northern CONUS carries it
towards the northern Plains. Warm sector rain will spread out over
northern MI late Monday night and last into Tuesday morning.
Moisture amounts will not be as high as they were this past event
(mean PW values around 1.4") however moderate and heavy rain could
be seen with more convective storms. Around 1,000 - 2,500 j/kg of
MUCAPE exists with 100 - 200 SRH. However the timing of this next
system will impact the scenario that unfolds. At the moment global
deterministic guidance is trending towards the surface low moving
through more overnight Monday into early Tuesday, with the cold
front through by Tuesday afternoon. Earlier runs have shown a slower
track, allowing more of that instability to be surface based. The
first scenario would result in mostly scattered to numerous rain
showers will isolated embedded thunder. The second holds higher
chances for better coverage of thunderstorms which could be in an
environment capable of producing some severe threats. We will be
keeping an eye on how things trend for Tuesday.

As the surface low exits, more quick moving upper level waves will
reach down from Canada and bring more rounds of rain chances to
northern MI through next weekend. A day or two of warming and drying
in between each system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Low pressure will continue to track eastward out of Lower
Michigan this morning...replaced by an upper level trough axis
swinging thru Northern Michigan this afternoon and evening.
Chances of showers and possibly an isold thunderstorm will
remain in the forecast thru this evening. IFR/MVFR conditions
will persist across our area today into this evening...with
some improvement to low VFR expected later this evening as high
pressure and drier air begin to move into our region in the wake
of the upper level trough axis. Surface winds will remain from
the N/NW at 10 to 20 kts.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     this evening for LHZ347>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     342-344.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...MLR