Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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379 FXUS63 KAPX 231700 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 100 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances of shower and possibly a few thunderstorms... especially this afternoon and evening - Near seasonal temperatures with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances through this week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 854 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Kinda an early fall-like feel and look to the weather this morning...with northwest winds, areas of drizzle/light showers, and temperatures mostly in the lower and middle 60s. Should see some slow improvement heading into this afternoon as low level moisture profiles thin some. Still looking at the threat for some scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder or two...especially across eastern upper and northeast lower Michigan with continued cooling aloft and the development of some meager mixed layer cape. Shouldn`t be too big a deal at all, with nothing severe expected. Temperatures will slowly recover, with highs expected to top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Lingering chances of showers and storms today into this evening... High Impact Weather Potential...The chance for non-severe thunderstorms will linger today into this evening. Complex area of low pressure continues to make its way eastward thru Lower Michigan early this morning. Area of widespread convection that impacted Northern Lower Michigan last night has exited our CWA...taking with it the potential for heavy rainfall. In coordination with both GRR and DTX...have cancelled the Flood Warning for all of Northern Lower Michigan. Another area of widespread shower activity is pivoting thru Upper Michigan attm driven by an upper level trough axis combined with wrap-around moisture on the back side of the surface low. Surface low center will push thru Lake Huron this morning...reaching SW Quebec this afternoon. A stronger upper level trough axis will swing thru Northern Michigan this afternoon and evening...and combined with another shot of synoptic moisture...with extend chances of showers and possibly a few storms thru this evening across much of Northern Michigan. Greatest chances of precip will be across Eastern Upper...far Northern and NE Lower Michigan this afternoon into early evening where lift and moisture will be maximized during peak diurnal heating/instability. Lack of sufficient instability will preclude any possibility of strong/severe storms. High temps this afternoon will be mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s... with low temps tonight cooling into the 50s across most of our CWA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Northwest will be overhead as a closed low exits the state and continues east Monday. Drier air will be moving in, allowing sunny skies and temperatures to warm in the afternoon hours. A northern Rockies lee side trough will move straight east as zonal flow alfot over the northern CONUS carries it towards the northern Plains. Warm sector rain will spread out over northern MI late Monday night and last into Tuesday morning. Moisture amounts will not be as high as they were this past event (mean PW values around 1.4") however moderate and heavy rain could be seen with more convective storms. Around 1,000 - 2,500 j/kg of MUCAPE exists with 100 - 200 SRH. However the timing of this next system will impact the scenario that unfolds. At the moment global deterministic guidance is trending towards the surface low moving through more overnight Monday into early Tuesday, with the cold front through by Tuesday afternoon. Earlier runs have shown a slower track, allowing more of that instability to be surface based. The first scenario would result in mostly scattered to numerous rain showers will isolated embedded thunder. The second holds higher chances for better coverage of thunderstorms which could be in an environment capable of producing some severe threats. We will be keeping an eye on how things trend for Tuesday. As the surface low exits, more quick moving upper level waves will reach down from Canada and bring more rounds of rain chances to northern MI through next weekend. A day or two of warming and drying in between each system. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1257 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Looking at periods of MVFR cigs into this evening, especially at KAPN and KCIU...where a few light showers may also occur. Gradual clearing trend expected tonight, with mostly sunny skies Monday morning. Will need to watch for some patchy fog tonight, particularly at KMBL. Gusty northwest winds go light and variable tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ347>349. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 342-344. && $$ UPDATE...MSB SHORT TERM...MLR LONG TERM...ELD AVIATION...MSB