416
FNUS53 KAPX 250705
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
305 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...Strong storms this morning, rain ends by afternoon...

.DISCUSSION...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across much of northern
lower Michigan this morning. Primary hazard with these storms will
be damaging wind gusts, while large hail and locally heavy rainfall
will also be possible. Rain/thunder chances should exit the area by
late morning/early afternoon. Otherwise, south winds around 10 mph
with gusts to 20-25 mph will gradually turn to west winds by this
evening as a front swings across the area. Temperatures look to
climb into the upper 70s/low 80s this afternoon. No RH concerns are
anticipated over the next few days.



MIZ016-017-021>023-099-252015-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
305 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Rain and
                    thunderstorms until 1200.
Max Temperature.....76-81...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........59-64 percent.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (564).
Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.13- 0.24 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....54-59.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (44).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....65-70...except 57-62 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier...except 2 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (319).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-252015-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
305 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Scattered
                    thunderstorms and chance of rain until 1200.
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 69-74 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........62-67 percent.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (554).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.15- 0.43 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 3 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (51).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....72-77...except 57-62 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (313).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-252015-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
305 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Rain and
                    thunderstorms until 1200.
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (535).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.17- 0.44 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 77-82 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 7 percent drier along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (39).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....65-70...except 57-62 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........57-62 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (288).
Mixing Height.......2200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-252015-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
305 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Rain and
                    thunderstorms until 1200.
Max Temperature.....77-82.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (591).
Mixing Height.......2900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.31- 0.63 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (43).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....69-74.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent...except 63-68 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier...except 3 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (391).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-252015-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
305 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Scattered
                    thunderstorms and chance of rain until 1200.
Max Temperature.....77-82.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........64-69 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (691).
Mixing Height.......3200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.20- 0.51 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (46).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....73-78.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (459).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...RAIN LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

DJC