Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
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357 FXUS63 KARX 200317 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1017 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures continue through Saturday before cooling to more seasonal temperatures lasting into early next week. - Chances for rain return Saturday and possibly Sunday as next storm system moves into the region. && .DISCUSSION... Updated at 1015 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Above normal temperatures through Saturday then cooler for the weekend into next week: Surface high pressure builds in for Friday, however 850mb temperatures do not cool significantly until the next cold front Saturday night. Highs Friday and Saturday should range from the mid 70s to the mid 80s. As another 500mb trough moves through central Canada and the closed low over the Southwest U.S. moves into the Four Corners region, moisture returns northward and ahead of the trough Saturday. The forcing appears to be somewhat split, but there is enough to mention rain chances 40-70% Saturday night and possibly into Sunday. There is not great agreement for Sunday on the strength of the push of dry air with the cold front and the strength of the storm system moving through Colorado with the deterministic runs. The ensembles do have 40-70 probabilities of 0.25" or more. We`ll continue to monitor this though with the deterministic EC being drier for Sunday. Similarly for Monday, depending on the closed low tracking into the region, precipitation may affect parts of the forecast area. We are on the cool side of the front Sunday into mid-week, thus temperatures remain seasonable in the 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1015 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Patchy shallow fog is expected to develop through the rest of the night as rain departs to the east, with IFR to localized LIFR visibilities before sunrise. The fog burns off quickly after sunrise with VFR conditions for the remainder of the TAF period. Winds turn to the west by the mid morning with WNW winds for the remainder of the day at 5-10kts, becoming light and variable overnight. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Zapotocny AVIATION...Skow