996
AXNT20 KNHC 251551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jun 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned to near 24W,
south of 15N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N-11N and between 22W-28W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 18N,
moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection prevails south of 15N between 61W-67W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, south of 16N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection prevails south of 13N between 78W-83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 08N29W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N29W to 06N58W. Scattered moderate convection is
evident within 120 NM on either sides of the boundaries. The E North
Pacific monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica eastward to a 1010
mb low over NW Colombia. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection prevails south of 13N between 78W-83W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak 1016 mb high pressure system centered near 26N87W dominates
the basin, supporting gentle or weaker winds and only 1-3 ft seas.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the SW Gulf of
Mexico, over the Yucatan Channel, and over the coastal waters of
south Florida.

For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through
Fri supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas over the
eastern half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas across the western half of the basin. Looking ahead,
wind and seas may increase over the SW Gulf during the upcoming
weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High north
of the area and the 1010 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to strong
trades across the E and central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate
in the W Caribbean. Seas are 4-7 ft over the E and central Caribbean
and 2-5 ft over the W Caribbean. As noted in the tropical wave
section, Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection prevails
south of 13N between 78W-83W as well as south of 15N between 61W-67W.

For the forecast, environmental conditions appear conducive for slow
development of the tropical wave currently at 65W, once the wave
reaches the western Caribbean late this week. Fresh to strong winds
and moderate seas will accompany this wave across the eastern and
central Caribbean through Thu. Winds and seas could further increase
across the NW Caribbean toward the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A 1026 mb Bermuda-Azores High centered at 31N42W has surface ridging
associated with it extending west-southwestward to 28N80W and east-
northeastward north of our waters. The moderate pressure gradient
between the ridging and the ITCZ/monsoon trough is causing generally
moderate to fresh trades south of 27N. Seas are 8-10 ft just east of
the Lesser Antilles, 5-7 ft elsewhere south of 27N, and 3-5 ft north
of 27N. A surface trough is located near the Bahamas from 24N74W to
27N70W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 24N-28N
between 69W-78W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will dominate the
area during the forecast period producing a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow with moderate seas E of 75W and NE of the Bahamas.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail.

$$
Landsea/Rubio