566
AXNT20 KNHC 241629
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jun 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical was relocated in the latest surface
analysis based on wave diagnostics along 24W, south of 15N.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13.5N between
19W and the wave`s axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave was relocated in the latest surface
analysis based on wave diagnostics and the latest scatterometer
data along 53W, south of 13N. Scattered showers are noted from
08N to 14N between 50W and 56W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 62W, south of 21N,
moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along the wave`s axis, from 10N-14N.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 16N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
depicted along the trough axis.

The western Caribbean/EPAC tropical wave have moved over the
Eastern Pacific. For more information about this wave please refer
to the Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues
southwestward to 07N32W. The ITCZ extends from 07N32W to 10N59.5W.
Scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to 9N between
26W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The basin is under generally dry conditions, with the exception of
some showers and thunderstorms off the coast of Mexico. Moderate
or weaker winds and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail across the Gulf.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds prevail across most of
the basin, with light winds across the eastern Gulf. Slight seas
can also be expected across the Gulf through the week. Winds will
increase moderate to locally fresh at night across the western
Gulf through most of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture continue to
enhance the showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Greater
Antilles and surrounding waters. Similar convection is noted off
NW Colombia, off eastern Yucatan and NE Caribbean, also affecting
the Leeward Islands. An expansive subtropical ridge centered
between Bermuda and the Azores extends southwestward into the
Caribbean Sea. The ridge is forcing fresh to locally strong
easterly winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these
waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, surface ridging prevails across the Atlantic
basin. This is causing moderate to fresh winds to persist across
the eastern and central Caribbean through tonight. Winds are
expected to pulse to strong speeds tonight near the coast over the
south- central basin. Moderate trade winds and moderate seas will
persist across the western basin through the week, except for
winds pulsing to strong speeds in the Gulf of Honduras later this
afternoon. Fresh to strong trades will accompany a tropical wave
moving across the eastern basin Tue through early Wed and across
the central basin Wed through Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Two surface troughs are analyzed over the wester Atlantic. One
trough is analyzed over the western Bahamas, while the second
trough is from 28N67W to 24N73W. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are depicted along the second surface trough. This
convection is being enhanced by divergence aloft and abundant
tropical moisture. In the remainder of the tropical Atlantic,
Saharan dust and subsidence allow for drier conditions.

An expansive subtropical ridge is centered between Bermuda and
the Azores. Moderate to fresh southwesterly winds and seas of 4-5
ft are occurring north of 30N and west of 75W. The pressure
gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in
the deep tropics sustain fresh to locally strong NE-E winds south
of 25N and between 33W and 60W. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft,
with the highest seas occurring near 11N50W. Moderate to fresh NE
winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present east of 33W. Elsewhere in
the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, an Atlantic ridge extends westward
along 30N to offshore of NE Florida. This ridge will shift NE
tonight into Tue and weaken through Thu. Fresh southerly winds and
moderate seas will prevail across the waters N of 30N and W of
75W today. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will generally prevail
elsewhere across the region through Wed, becoming SE to S winds W
of 65W. Fresh to strong winds across the waters E of the Lesser
Antilles will prevail through Tue associated with the passage of a
tropical wave.

$$
KRV