477
AXNT20 KNHC 280608
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jun 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Heavy Rainfall for southern Mexico and Central
America: Satellite imagery continues to reveal a broad cyclonic
circulation associated with a Central American Gyre (CAG) in
Central America. Latest computer model guidance continues to
suggest high precipitation amounts through early next week. As
the system continues propagating northwestward, higher rainfalls
are expected at the eastern areas of Honduras and Nicaragua
through Sunday. These rainfalls will shift over Belize, eastern
Guatemala and Southern Mexico along the Gulf of Mexico during the
weekend and early next week. It is recommended that residents in
the aforementioned areas to stay alert on the latest information
from their local meteorological weather agencies. Please refer to
the Tropical Weather Discussion for the East Pacific at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtmal on rainfall
information along the Pacific coastal areas of these nations.

Invest AL95: Broad low pressure in the vicinity of a tropical
wave near 09N37W is beginning to show signs of organization. With
environmental conditions at the central and western Atlantic
remains conducive, a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form over the next couple of days. There is a high
chance of formation on this system for the next 2 to 7 days, and
interests in the Lesser Antilles need to monitor this system
closely. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 19W from 08N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 07N between 14W and 21W.

An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W from 15N southward
through AL95 mentioned in the Special Feature section, and moving
west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N
to 11N between 34W and 42W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and 5
to 8 ft seas are evident from 07N to 10N between 36W and 39W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 19N southward,
and moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present
from 16N to 19N between 51W and 53W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from southwest of
the Cayman Islands southward through a broad low pressure (AL94)
near Honduras-Nicaragua coastal border to eastern Costa Rica. The
whole system is drifting westward at 5 kt. Numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms are occurring near the low. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from the Gulf of
Honduras eastward to the Cayman Islands. As this system drifts
northwestward over the next few days, some gradual development is
possible at the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf
of Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Mauritania and Senegal, then curves southwestward across 09N26W
to 09N42W. An ITCZ continues westward from 09N42W to 10N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the trough from 04N
to 08N between 23W and 31W. No significant convection is near the
ITCZ based on the latest analysis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends westward from a 1014 mb high at the
southeastern Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. Gentle to moderate SE
to S to SW winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are evident at the western
and north-central Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3
ft prevail the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the high and related ridge will continue to
dominate the Gulf through Fri, supporting light to gentle winds
and slight seas over the eastern Gulf, and gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas across the western Gulf.
Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase over the central and
west-central Gulf Fri night through Sun night as a broad area of
low pressure, with some potential for tropical cyclone development
reaches the area. Conditions are forecast to improve Mon through
Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent southerly winds are triggering isolated thunderstorms
off the coast of Costa Rica and northern Colombia. Refer to the
Tropical Waves section for additional convection in the Caribbean
Sea associated with AL94. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and
seas at 5 to 7 ft are found at the northwestern basin, including
the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle with locally moderate southerly winds
and seas of 2 to 4 ft exist at the southwestern basin. Gentle to
moderate E to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in
the Caribbean Basin.

For the forecast, expect moderate to fresh trade winds through
Mon night, with the exceptions of fresh to strong southeast winds
over the far western Caribbean late tonight through Sat night, and
light to gentle winds over the southwestern basin. Winds and seas
are expected to increase in the eastern basin starting Mon as a
strong tropical wave, or possible tropical cyclone, enters the
Caribbean. This conditions will spread to the central basin Tue
and Tue night as this upcoming system tracks in a general
westward direction.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for
details on low pressure (AL95) which might become a tropical
depression in a couple of days.

Two surface troughs over eastern Florida, and east of the Bahamas
are triggering widely scattered moderate convection north of 23N
between 65W and the Florida coast. A broad, elongated upper-level
low near 28N51W is producing widely scattered convection north of
25N between 47W and 54W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Atlantic
Basin. A broad surface ridge stretches southwestward from a 1030
mb Azores High across 31N55W across the central Bahamas to the
Great Bahama Bank. This feature is promoting moderate to fresh NE
to E winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft north of 20N between 25W and 60W.
To the west, gentle to moderate SE to S to SSW winds and 3 to 5 ft
seas are noted north of 20N between 60W and the Florida-Georgia
coast. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh N
to NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate north of 14N between
the Africa coast and 25W/30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 09N
to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, except near AL95,
moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft exist.
Gentle to moderate southerly and monsoonal winds with 4 to 6 ft
seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the region will
remain in control of the weather pattern across the region thru
early next week. Anticipate mainly a gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow with moderate seas northeast of the Bahamas.
Looking ahead, winds and seas may begin to increase from 10N to
18N between 35W and 50W from late Sat through Mon in advance of a
strong tropical wave. This wave could become a tropical cyclone,
while tracking generally westward into the Caribbean Sea Mon
through Tue night.

$$

Chan