641
AXNT20 KNHC 171037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Sep 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Gordon is centered near 19.0N 49.0W at
17/0900 UTC or 800 NM E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving W
at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms are observed from 17N to 22N between 44W
and 51W. Peak seas are near 11 ft. Gordon will move to 19.5N
49.1W this afternoon, 20.4N 48.7W Wed morning, 21.7N 48.2W Wed
afternoon, strengthen to a tropical storm near 23.3N 47.5W Thu
morning, 25.1N 46.7W Thu afternoon, and 26.3N 45.8W Fri morning.
Gordon will change little in intensity as it moves to the 27.6N
44.6W early Sat.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
  Gordon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
  www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A 1008 mb low is near
29N50W, while a cold front extends from the low to 26N54W, and a
stationary front extends to 30N62W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is occurring from 28N to 31N between 43W and 48W.
Strong to near gale force NE winds are likely occurring to the
north and west of the center of the low with seas of 8-12 ft, and
moderate to fresh S winds to the south and east. The low pressure
will move southwestward over the next few days and weaken late
this week as Gordon moves northward. Seas will build over the next
day or so. Peak seas of 12 to 14 ft in NE swell will cover an
area from 27.5N northward to 31N between 47W and 55W today through
Wed afternoon. Strong to near gale-force NE winds will also
accompany these peak seas during the same time frame, with gale
force winds expected just north of the area. Significant wave
heights are forecast to gradually begin to subside late Wed into
Thu.

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 06N to 17N and between 15W and 31W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 5-10 kt. The southern portion of the trough
axis is enhancing the scattered showers and thunderstorms over
northern Colombia and south-central portions of the Caribbean Sea.

A tropical wave is along 90W, extending from southern Yucatan to
Guatemala and into the Eastern Pacific. A few showers are noted
near this boundary.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 14N17W through the
coast of Senegal and continues west-southwestward to 12N45W. The
ITCZ is from 15N54W to 14N62W. Please see the Tropical Waves
section for information on convection near the monsoon
trough/ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper level trough over the eastern United States and a
stationary front in the NE Gulf is resulting in scattered showers
off the coast of southwest Florida and east of Tampico, Mexico.
Generally dry continental air dominates the northern portion of
the Gulf, suppressing the formation of showers and thunderstorms.
The weak pressure pattern promotes moderate or weaker winds and
slight seas.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging over the Gulf waters will
support generally light to gentle winds and slight seas into Thu.
Locally moderate to fresh winds may pulse in the Bay of Campeche
nightly through the middle of the week. A cold front moving
through the Gulf late week will support moderate NE winds across
the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Divergence aloft and abundant moisture continues to produce strong
showers and thunderstorms south of Cuba and west of Hispaniola.
Similar convection is noted off the coast of northwest Colombia
through Costa Rica. Drier conditions are found in the rest of the
basin, especially in the northeastern and north-central
Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between high pressure centered near 24N64W
and the Colombian low is resulting in fresh to strong E trade
winds and seas of 5-8 ft in the central Caribbean. The strongest
winds and highest seas are present off northern Colombia and the
Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to locally fresh E breezes and seas
of 3-6 ft are evident in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will
continue to support fresh trades across central portions of the
basin through Wed. Locally strong winds and rough seas will be
possible off the coast of Venezuela and Colombia into Wed.
Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and slight seas will then
occur across central portions of the Caribbean Thu into the
weekend, with gentle to moderate winds occurring across
northwestern and southwestern portions of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
on Tropical Depression Gordon and the Gale center in the central
Atlantic.

A cold front enters the SW North Atlantic near 31N76W and
continues to the just south of Melbourne, Florida. Divergence
aloft and abundant moisture supports scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms west of 69W. The rest of the SW North Atlantic
(west of 55W) is under the influence of a broad 1026 mb ridge off
New England that forces fresh to locally strong E trade winds and
seas of 4-6 ft off the coast of Hispaniola. Moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere west of 55W. In the
rest of the tropical Atlantic, outside of the influence of TD
Gordon and the Gale center, broad ridging dominates, supporting
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, pulsing fresh trades off the coast
of Hispaniola will continue through Wed. Moderate to fresh NE
winds and rough seas will develop north of 25N and east of 60W
today as a surface low currently located near 29N50W strengthens.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
will prevail across the rest of the basin.

$$
ADAMS