077
AXNT20 KNHC 232346
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Sep 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is centered near 18.1N 82.2W at
23/2100 UTC or 90 nm SW of Grand Cayman, moving NNW at 6 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is occurring from from 17N to 20N between 79W
and 82W. Additional moderate convection surrounds this area, and
is occurring from 15N to the coast of Cuba, between 78W and 83W.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system
is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue
strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. Nine will move to 19.0N 83.0W Tue morning, 19.9N 84.2W
Tue afternoon, 21.1N 85.4W Wed morning, 23.0N 86.0W Wed afternoon,
25.4N 85.5W Thu morning, and 28.9N 84.5W Thu afternoon. Nine will
move inland over 35.5N 84.5W Fri afternoon. Potential Tropical
Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4
to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated
totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to
4 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals over 6 inches.
This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the
Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to
produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
totals around 10 inches, bringing a risk of flooding, some of
which could be considerable. The combination of a dangerous storm
surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to
be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. It
is recommended that residents in the aforementioned areas stay
alert on the latest information from their local meteorological
agencies. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Nine
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is near 23W south of 19N,
moving westward at 10 kt through the Cabo Verde Islands.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 12N to 16N between
21W and 25W. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the middle to latter part of this week
while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance of tropical
formation in the next 48 hours, and a high chance of formation
within the next seven days.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is near 49W south of 16N,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen
from 08N to 15N between 47W and 55W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W, the curves
southwestward to 07N35W. The ITCZ then extends from 07N35W to
10N47W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 05N
and east of 18N to the coast of Africa, and scattered moderate to
locally strong convection is occurring over land.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
numerous moderate to strong convection from the Yucatan Peninsula
southeastward through the coast of Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.

A 1015 mb high pressure centered near 33N88W is dominating the
basin, supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas.

For the forecast, winds and seas will increase, especially over
eastern portions of the Gulf by midweek due to Potential Tropical
Cyclone Nine.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Refer to the Special Features
and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for convection in the Caribbean
Sea.

Outside the winds and seas mentioned in the Special Features
section, gentle to moderate SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail
in the basin.

For the forecast away from tropical development, moderate trades
and slight to moderate seas will occur in the central and eastern
basin. Once PTC Nine moves north of the basin by late week,
moderate trades and slight seas will return.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the tropical waves section for information on a tropical wave
in the far eastern Atlantic that has a potential for tropical
development as it moves W to WNW into the central Tropical
Atlantic this week.

A weak trough extends from SE of Bermuda through the Bahamas and
into central Florida. Scattered moderate convection is along and
within 150 NM ahead of the trough, generally north of 25N. Widely
scattered moderate convection is seen north from 21N to 31N
between 49N and 57N, near a 1006 mb low centered near 32N56W.

Moderate winds are noted north of the monsoon trough north of 15N
and east of 45E, with locally fresh NE winds occurring downwind of
the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail.
Seas are generally 3 to 6 ft, with some 6 to 8 ft seas in N swell
following the weak cold front between Bermuda and the Bahamas.

For the forecast W of 55W, a set of northerly swell will
propagate into the northern waters through Tue, bringing an
increase in seas over the waters N of 28N through mid-week. Away
from potential tropical development, an easterly trade wind regime
will prevail.

$$
ADAMS