089
AXNT20 KNHC 152250
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jun 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall over Central America and Mexico: A Central
American Gyre (CAG), which is a broad low to mid level cyclonic
circulation centered over the Central America, continues to
develop. Widespread deep convection driven by the CAG is expected
this weekend through Friday June 21. Heavy rainfall with this
event is expected along the Pacific coast of northern Central
America and southern Mexico. This heavy rainfall may cause life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of
hilly terrain. Heavy rainfall is also possible across Quintana
Roo, Yucatn, Tabasco, and Veracruz this week. Please refer to
bulletins and forecasts from your local weather forecast and
emergency management offices for specific information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 22W, from 15N southward, moving westward
around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this
feature.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 55W this
morning based on upper air sounding data from Cayenne, French
Guiana. The wave extends from 17N southward. It is moving west at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 14N
between 53W and 56W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave that was over the southwest
Caribbean lost clear definition as it was absorbed into the broad
low to mid level cyclonic circulation associated with the Central
American Gyre described in the Special Features sections.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters passes off the coast of Africa near
14N17W to 06N25W to 05N35W. The ITCZ continues from 05N35W to
06N50W. Scattered moderate convection within 60 nm either side of
the ITCZ between 22W and 30W.

The Central American Gyre described in the Special Features is
lifting the East Pacific monsoon trough north across the western
Caribbean. This monsoon trough currently extends from the coast of
Colombia near 11N74W to a 1008 mb low pressure along the coast of
Nicaragua to 13N83W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 12N to 16N west of 78W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on heavy
rainfall across Quintana Roo, Yucatn, Tabasco, and Veracruz this
week.

A surface trough extends from the northeast Gulf of Mexico near
29N85W to low pressure in the Bay of Campeche near 1007 mb low
pressure at 18N92W. Scattered moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms
are noted from 25N to 28N between 85W and 90W. Gentle to moderate
easterly breezes persist across the Gulf. Combined seas are 4 to 6
ft in the southeast Gulf and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the northeast portion of the aforementioned
surface troughs will shift NW and dissipate through tonight. The
broad low to middle level cyclonic circulation, a Central American
Gyre, is centered over the south-central Gulf of Mexico and
extends into Central America. This feature is expected to become
better organized through Mon, as it drifts westward. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for a tropical cyclone to develop
from this broad area of low pressure, and a tropical depression
could form over the southwestern Gulf during the middle part of
next week, then move west or west-northwestward. Active convection
across the southeast Gulf, along with increasing winds and
building seas, is expected to shift westward with this system into
the middle part of next week, significantly impacting the south-
central and northwest Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on heavy
rainfall across Quintana Roo and Yucatn this week.

Please read the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section for information on
active strong convection in the W Caribbean.

Moderate to fresh E to SW winds prevail over the central and
western Caribbean, with 5-7 ft seas across these waters. Gentle to
moderate trades are noted in the E Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, the Central American Gyre will bring fresh to
strong SE winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms across
portions of the western and northwestern Caribbean over the next
few days. Expect increasing winds and building seas over the
western Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, through Tue in
association with the gyre.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1016 mb low pressure centered north of the Bahamas near 29N75W,
with a trough extending to Cape Canaveral, FL, and another trough
extending northeast of the low out of the area. Scattered moderate
convection persists within 90 nm to the southeast of this low
pressure. Farther east, a trough reaches from 27N63W to near the
southern Bahamas at 22N70W. Scattered moderate convection is near
the northern tip of this trough, from 27N to 29N between 55W and
63W. Broad high pressure dominates the region farther east, north
of 20N, centered on 1028 mb high pressure near 34N37W. This
pattern is supporting gentle SE breezes and 3 to 5 ft east west of
50W, moderate E breezes and 5 to 7 ft between 25W and 50W, and
fresh to strong NE winds with 6 to 8 ft seas east of 25W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough northeast of the Bahamas
will shift eastward and exit the region through early next week,
with active convection continuing ahead of it. Expect fresh E
winds north of 26N and west of 65W by Tue, as high pressure builds
north of the area, behind the exiting trough. Low pressure is
forecast to develop near 26N to the east of the Bahamas by Wed,
and move west to west-northwest and into Florida through late Thu.

$$
Christensen