196
FXUS61 KBGM 281804
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
204 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled, showery, and cooler weather will continue through
Wednesday as a slow moving upper level disturbance moves through
the area. Drier conditions will return Thursday, with a warming
trend for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
910 AM Update...

Updated current and near-term temperatures through today. With
clouds likely to linger around all day with little breaks in
clouds for sun to pop through, temperatures will likely remain
in the mid- to upper-60s, with valley locations having the best
chance to break 70 degrees as the high temperature. Otherwise,
near-term forecast remains on track.


350 AM Update...

Some patchy fog has developed in areas with clear patches,
mainly along the upper Susquehanna down into valleys through the
Catskills and Poconos. Elsewhere, lower cloud cover is beginning
to move in to western parts of the CWA. Expect mostly cloudy
conditions to prevail through the day, with a pair of shortwave
troughs expected to bring scattered to numerous showers and the
odd thunderstorm to the area from mid-morning through the
evening hours.

A weak cold front will settle south of the area Wednesday, but
additional rounds of showers are expected to redevelop Wednesday
afternoon. Models have been trending a little further south with
the precip, especially the higher res guidance. Trimmed back
PoPs across northern portions of the area for now, with showers
most prevalent south of the NY/PA line.

With the lagging trough hanging over the area, temperatures will
be on the cooler side, with highs in the mid-60s to near 70 in
Central NY today, and up to the middle-70s in the Wyoming Valley
of PA. Similar conditions are expected Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
210 PM update...

Main concerns in the short term are focused on the trailing
light rain showers over the southern Catskills during the early
part of the day Thursday...followed by cool and dry conditions
Thu night and then warming temperatures into Fri.

Very quiet weather is expected for the latter half of the week
as a cool and dry, positively tilted upper level trough rotates
through the Great Lakes. Out ahead of this feature will exist an
embedded short wave which will be co-located with a weak ribbon
of deep moisture that will be sufficient enough to trigger some
late morning and afternoon showers over eastern NY and into New
England. Some of these showers could pop up over the Catskills,
but coverage of these showers will be very isolated. This is a
slight change from the previous forecast which included rain
showers farther back to the west. So, the forecast has trended
drier.

The air mass moving in on Thursday will be slightly cooler, so
afternoon high temperatures will only rise into the mid 60s to
around 70. The combination of 10-15 mph northwest will make it
feel even a bit cooler at times. Skies will clear out west to
east through the day which will set the stage for strong
radiational cooling Thu night. The combination of light winds
will drop temperatures into the lower to mid 40s for much of the
region. A few locations in the upper 30s are not out of the
question, especially in elevated sheltered locations that
decouple from the boundary layer.

Conditions on Friday will remain dry and quiet with
temperatures very close to average for this time of year. Skies
are expected to remain mostly clear/sunny with highs in the
upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
210 PM update...

The longwave pattern into the early part of the weekend will be
defined by an incoming high amplitude upper level ridge from
the west. This ridge axis will have warmer air associated with
it and will also bring with it continued dry/quiet weather.
Morning temperatures on Saturday will continue to be on the
chilly side, but not as cold as the previous couple days. Lows
are only expected to bottom out in the mid to upper 40s.

850mb temperatures around +11 to +13 deg C will lift north into
the area on Saturday which will push surface temperatures into
the mid to upper 70s close to 80. The quiet conditions persist
into Saturday and most of Sat night.

The pattern certainty really starts to take a dive by Sunday
and Monday next week. The evolution of the upper ridge axis is
really in question along with the amplitude and timing of the
next upper level wave arriving from the west. The latest ECMWF
is the quickest to bring in rain chances early Sunday, while the
GFS holds off until Sunday evening, and the CMC keep the area
of high pressure in place over the mid Atlantic and most of the
region free of precip through the middle of the week. The
current forecast attempts to find a middle ground and will bring
in some slight chance of showers and weak storms during the day
Sunday into Monday...with the thunder chances mainly in the
afternoon and evening. At this time there is minimal deviation
from the ensemble blends and the previous forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered showers across mainly Central NY will maintain
VFR/MVFR bouncing conditions through this afternoon, with brief
periods of fuel alt-level ceilings possible.

Ceilings will trend lower overnight, with fuel alt conditions
over most of Central NY, and MVFR working into NE PA. Ceilings
may drop to IFR at ITH late tonight at ITH in the wake of a
weak cold front, as winds shift to the NW.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Occasional restrictions likely from showers and
isolated thunderstorms mainly across the Twin Tiers southward
into PA. Valley fog possible Wednesday night.

Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...KL/MPH
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...KL