175
FXUS61 KBGM 170722
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
322 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to bring dry and mild weather
through the remainder of the week and into this weekend for most
of the region. There is a small chance for showers in northeast
Pennsylvania on Wednesday as low pressure passes well to our
south.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

320 AM Update...

High pressure will remain over the region today and again
tomorrow. The dry and warm conditions will continue through the
period. There is some high cirrostratus pushing in ahead of a
coastal low that is currently centered over the Carolinas, but
expecting to see nothing more than high clouds from this system
today. However, the cirrus will keep temperatures slightly
cooler than yesterday, but still well above average for this
time of year.

Latest model guidance keeps low pressure well south of the
region on Wednesday, so lowered PoPs to just slight chance for
portions of NE PA through Wednesday evening. Slightly more cloud
cover is expected tomorrow, but still looking at high
temperatures well into the 70s and low 80s for most of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Update...

Upper level ridging over the region is expected to shift to the
east Wednesday while surface high pressure weakens. This will
allow for an increase in clouds from south to north as some
moisture associated with upper level low over the central
Appalachians slowly pushes northward. However with plenty of dry
air entrenched over the region, this influx in moisture is
expected to only make it so far and the trend has been for any
rainfall to stay generally south of the CWA. NE PA into the
Catskills seem to have the best chance of seeing any
precipitation as a secondary low develops off the mid-Atlantic
Coast Wednesday night into Thursday and cyclonic flow tries to
push moisture into the higher terrain. PoPs are generally less
than 40% in this area Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
evening. Farther north, PoPs were lowered across the northern
Finger Lakes to the Mohawk Valley during this time from the NBM
with the trend keeping precipitation suppressed to the south.

Highs Wednesday are expected to be in the 70s with low 80s in
some valley areas. Thursday`s highs again will be mainly in the
70s with a few areas near the Thruway making a run at 80 degrees
where is it expected to be dry with perhaps a bit more in terms
of sunshine. Lows Wednesday and Thursday night range from the
mid 50s to near 60 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM Update...

In the longer range, there remains uncertainty with what
happens with the upper low over the Appalachians as most model
solutions show the low becoming an open trough Friday and
shifting just offshore by early Saturday, other solutions show a
possibility that it approaches the southern CWA before
retrograding back to the south and west as well. For now, some
low-end slight chance PoPs were kept in the forecast for Friday,
mainly for NE PA and the Catskills.

A back door cold front looks to cross the area Friday night
into Saturday as surface high pressure builds in from the
northeast. Upper level ridging is expected to build in on
Sunday, so all in all the weekend into early next week seems to
be pretty quiet.

Highs Saturday are expected to range from the upper 60s and low
70s over the Catskills to the mid and upper 70s to the west.
Sunday and Monday look to have highs in the upper 60s to mid
70s. Overnight lows Saturday and Sunday nights are expected to
trend lower with widespread upper 40s and low 50s by Sunday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period with the
only exception being ELM. Valley fog this morning will bring at
least LIFR restrictions to ELM until about 1000 EDT, then VFR
conditions thereafter.

.Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with chance for morning fog at ELM
again.

Wednesday Night through Friday...Mainly VFR, but there is a low
chance for some isolated showers to possibly cause brief
restrictions.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...MPK