Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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393 FXUS61 KBGM 232340 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 740 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Clouds, patchy fog, and spotty showers can be expected overnight into early morning. While much of the area will be dry Tuesday, additional disturbances will support shower chances Tuesday night through Thursday. The pattern will change in time for the weekend as high pressure settles back in with drier conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 730 PM Update... With the shortwave exiting and the moisture layer becoming shallower, remaining showers are diminishing quickly. That said, clouds and patchy fog will persist through the night, with some spotty light showers. Previous discussion... Weak upper level ridging briefly builds back into the region on Tuesday, with a brief break in precipitation expected before the next system arrives. As the ridge slides eastwards our region gets placed in a southerly flow pattern. This will advect more moisture into our region kicking off more showers especially late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Although a chance of showers will still possible before this time frame. Otherwise temperatures will be relatively comfortable Tuesday afternoon with highs ranging in the mid to upper 60s. Overnight lows will fall into the 50s across the region. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A warm frontal boundary will slowly move through the region Wednesday and Thursday with enough lift and moisture to produce some scattered showers. QPF once again looks on the lighter side with the highest amounts of a half inch or less. Currently, this system looks to move fast enough to prevent deeper tropical moisture from advecting in. A few ensemble outliers do show deeper moisture with heavier and more widespread rain that extends through Friday. The general consensus though is for scattered light showers to end by Thursday night. Highs look to be in the 60`s and 70`s with lows in the 50`s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Two low pressure systems look to do an unusual Fujiwara effect across the south later this week into early next week. However, high pressure looks to build across our region throughout most of this time keeping chances for showers to our south. Fairly seasonable with 40`s and 50`s for lows with highs getting into the 70`s for many locations each day. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... In the wake of a weak disturbance with showers ending, a shallow layer of trapped moisture will cause ceiling and/or visibility restrictions, especially KELM-KBGM where IFR to LIFR conditions are anticipated. KITH will persist at fuel alternate below 2000 feet, though there is some uncertainty for if brief IFR could occur. KAVP will also settle below 2000 feet overnight but east-southeasterly low level flow should prevent IFR from being realized due to downsloping from the Poconos. Moisture will not be quite as thick towards KSYR-KRME, though KSYR will dip below 3000 feet/MVFR for much of the night. Improvement will occur during the day Tuesday, though there is uncertainty for whether KELM can manage to get above 2000 feet ceiling later in the day. .Outlook... Tuesday Night through Thursday Morning...Restrictions likely along with showers as multiple disturbances pass through the region. Embedded thunder could also occur later on Wednesday. Thursday Afternoon through Saturday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ES/MDP NEAR TERM...ES/MDP SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...MDP