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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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531 FXUS61 KBGM 171658 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY Issued by National Weather Service State College PA 1258 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions expected through the week, with the worst conditions arriving Tuesday and persisting with little relief through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Prior to the onset of extended heat and increasing humidity this week, parts of the region (mainly the Finger Lakes and Central Southern Tier) will be impacted by a compact upper level disturbance (MCV) currently located over Lake Erie. This feature will drift east this afternoon and help to initiate isolated to scattered late afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms across the Finger Lakes Region and Southern Tier of New York, with little or no precipitation further to the east. SPC placed approximately the western 40 percent of the CWA in a MRGL risk for severe later this afternoon into this evening as a result of this remnant convective disturbance and the increase in CAPE to between 1500-2000 j/kg. Best potential for SVR may be across the Central Southern Tier where ML (0-1 KM) EHI values reach around 1.5 M2/S2 late this afternoon and this evening. Otherwise...an upper-level ridge continues to slowly move over the region, and temperatures will begin to ramp up this afternoon, with high temperatures in the high 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will continue to rise into Tuesday, up to the low to mid 90s, with heat indices of 95 to 100. A Heat Advisory will be in effect Noon Tuesday for portions of Central NY and NE PA, and will last through Thursday evening. With overnight temperatures not dipping much past 70 degrees, there won`t be much relief from the hot and humid conditions. One of the challenges for this forecast will be chances for thunderstorms from perturbations riding on top of the ridge. Chances for afternoon into late evening thunderstorms Tuesday will be dependent on how strong the ridge is, and if it positions itself in a way where these perturbations advect into our area. Currently, there are only a few guidance solutions that depict thunderstorm initiation for Tuesday late afternoon into the evening, so there is a possibility for storms for Central NY, mainly west of I-81. We`ll keep monitoring near-term guidance for changes in solutions and chances for storm initiation Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Heat dome remains overhead through the period. Overnight lows will struggle to dip below 70 most places. High pressure will dip a bit further south on Wednesday and this will allow flow to become more out of the west-northwest and increase potential for isolated thunderstorm activity Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night as our area will fall a bit closer to the periphery of the high pressure system. Instability will likely peak above 2000 J/kg during the daytime hours, and although there will be some CIN, models are indicating potential for weak perturbations within the flow that could be enough to break the cap. The heat will still be an issue Wednesday with heat index values near 100 or even above in urban areas. However, thunderstorms may provide some brief relief where they occur. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The heat will continue into the extended period. Thursday will be another hot day with most of the area approaching or exceeding a 100F heat index once again. Thursday could end up being the hottest day of the week, but this will be dependent on afternoon convection. Guidance suggests that 500mb heights could finally begin to fall Friday into the upcoming weekend, which should lead to a (subtle) cooling trend. However, heat indices could still approach or exceed 100F across the southern potion of the CWA Friday afternoon. Even into Sat and Sun, heat indices in the valleys of southern NY and NE PA could still top out in the low to mid 90s. The falling heights will be accompanied by a slightly better chc for daily convection Friday through the weekend, which would also produce at least a bit of relief from the heat. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will persist through the bulk of the period at all terminals. However, did introduce VCTS for KITH and KELM later this afternoon into this evening as a compact upper level disturbance drifts east from Lake Erie and helps to initiate isolated TSRA across the Finger Lakes and Central Southern Tier of NYS. SSW winds will be in the 6-10 kt range this afternoon with some minor gusts into the low to mid teens through 23Z. Outlook... Monday Night...Mainly VFR. Tuesday through Friday...Spotty restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms, with probabilities increasing slowly in the later part of the period. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ009-015-018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ015>018. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/KL NEAR TERM...Lambert/KL SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...CTP AVIATION...Lambert