199
FXUS61 KBGM 242330
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
730 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds will continue into the early evening before high
pressure builds in. Tonight will be cool with temperatures
warming back up into the 80s tomorrow but stay mostly dry.
Wednesday has a chance at seeing some some severe thunderstorms
once again with best chances in the Southern Tier and south.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
725 PM Update...

Updated the wind and wind gust forecast to match current
observations. As a low level jet moves out of the area, wind
gusts are expected to decrease through the next few hours.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track.


145 PM Update...

Winds have become quite gusty this afternoon as a 850 mb jet
passes over head with that wind able to mix down to the surface
at times. Most of the area has seen gusts of at least 30 with
hill tops getting over 40 mph and even a few locations getting
45 to 48 mph. The 850 mb jet is moving east through the rest of
the morning with winds calming down from west to east and with
loss of mixing after sunset, the rest of the area will have
winds lessen. Tonight with high pressure building in, valley
wilds will likely go calm. Fog was added to the grids mainly for
the upper susquehanna river tributaries as well as the Mohawk
valley as the clouds wont clear until near sunset so there will
be more moisture and a lower threshold for fog formation. East
of I81, dry air has been mixing in with sunnier skies as well as
drier so fog formation will be tough.

Tomorrow warms back up with the trough axis east of the region
and ridging builds in. Flow aloft becomes more SW bringing in
higher dew points once again. The region is looking to stay dry
but some of the models are trying to develop an MCS in the
northern plains tonight that tries to propagate through the
Great Lakes reaching our area by the afternoon. Confidence is
low that will happen as the flow aloft is zonal so any
propagating wave should be more west to east rather than dipping
south so lowered precipitation chances in the afternoon.
Overnight there is a shortwave digging in so that is when there
is better chances as showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
320 PM Update...

The next chance for showers and thunderstorms returns
Wednesday, mostly during the afternoon evening as a positively
tilted trough dropping south of out Canada moves over the Great
Lakes region and a surface cold front beings to approach from
the west as well. Guidance does show a shortwave moving across
the area ahead of these two features that could be the initial
catalyst for storms as early as late-morning or early afternoon,
but there is uncertainty in its path and timing over the CWA.
There is the potential for some locally strong, perhaps even
severe, storms this day, however CAPE values do look to be lower
than earlier this morning, generally peaking around 1000-1500
J/kg, but the NAM is higher, closer to 2000 J/kg, but we are
outside of its wheelhouse. Shear peaks around 40-50 knots and
mid-level lapse rates are around 6.5-7.0 degrees C/km. Winds
look to turn southwesterly ahead of the upper trough mainly over
NE PA into the southern Catskills sending dew points in these
areas into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees, and this region is
where there is a slight risk out by the SPC. Much of CNY is
currently outlooked under a marginal risk, so this day will be
closely monitored. High temperatures Wednesday range from the
low and mid 80s over CNY to the upper 80s to near 90 degrees
over portions of the Twin Tiers, NE PA and southern Catskills.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to be scattered about
Wednesday night as the cold front moves through. Low
temperatures are expected to range from the mid 50s to the low
60s.

Surface high pressure is then expected to build in from the
west promoting dry conditions Thursday through Thursday night.
Northwest winds will set up a cool day for most on Thursday with
highs in the low to mid 70s, except for the Wyoming Valley
which could still approach 80 degrees. A pretty good radiational
cooling night sets up Thursday night under clear skies as lows
are expected to fall in the upper 40s and low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
320 PM Update...

High pressure remains in control Friday with highs expected to
return to the upper 70s to the low 80s. Another shortwave trough
and surface cold front is expected to bring the chance for
showers and storms unfortunately for the weekend before drier
air pushes back in early next week. Highs Saturday range from
the upper 70s to the mid 80s and are expected to cool slightly
on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the period, with current gusty
winds expected to decrease at all terminals by between 04-06Z.
With clouds still over RME for the next hour or so that will
clear out, there`s a possibility of some patchy fog to develop
overnight with recent rain from today, but confidence was too
low to include it in the TAF.

Outlook...

Tuesday afternoon...VFR likely.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night...Restrictions possible
in scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Restrictions from showers and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/KL
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...KL