160
FXUS61 KBGM 231732
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
132 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms expected across the
region today, as a cold front approaches the area. Some storms
may produce damaging winds, hail, and torrential rainfall. The
front will push through the area tonight, bringing relief from
the heat and humidity to start the week. Showers and
thunderstorms look to return on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
940 AM update...

Overall little change to the previous forecast. So far there has
been clearing across much of the area with temperatures rising
into the 80s already. CAPE values are creeping up over 1000 for
most unstable but there is still some capping as a few showers
that have developed SW of us have struggled to get any height to
them. The cold front is crossing Lake Erie and moving into
western NY so we have a few more hours of heating to go. CAMs
have been a bit less aggressive on convection but looking at
the soundings it seems that there is a dry bias in them compared
to observed dew points and if the surface obs are put in, there
is more CAPE and less capping in the forecast soundings so that
will be something that is going to be monitored ahead of
convective initiation.

400 AM Update:

Surface analysis places a low over Lake Huron with a wavy quasi-
stationary front across Lake Ontario and the Mohawk Valley. With
warm moist air overrunning the front, widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorms have been moving across Lake Ontario and much
of northern NY. A few stronger storms have developed near the Mohawk
Valley, including a severe thunderstorm which produced 1.25 inch
diameter hail in northern Oneida County earlier.

Upper level flow is mostly zonal across the northeastern US, with a
sharp upper level trough over the upper Great Lakes. Weak
disturbances embedded in the westerly flow continue to move through
the area, helping to trigger the odd convective cell across Central
NY and NEPA now and then, but it`s been mostly quiet south of the
Thruway for the past several hours.

Models show a leading shortwave trough will move into western NY/PA
late this morning, pushing east of the area by early evening. This
feature will be the main trigger for widespread showers and
thunderstorms from late this morning into the evening hours. At the
surface, increasing SW flow will be in place, and with no strong
surface forcing, CAMS indicate thunderstorms will form in several
clusters or bands by the afternoon across the CWA. Eventually, a
prefrontal surface trough will push in from the west, putting an end
to convection during the evening hours.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely, especially given 0-6km
shear of 35 to 45 knots, strengthening in the afternoon, which
favors eastern and southern portions of the CWA. Late in the
afternoon, 0-1 km shear also increases to around 25 to 30 knots in
parts of the Catskills and NEPA. However, upper air analysis shows a
mid-level thermal ridge axis extending across the Appalachians. This
looks to advect into the area later today, and shows up well in
BUFKIT soundings as a warm/dry layer around 700-550mb especially in
eastern areas of the CWA in the late morning and early afternoon
hours. The warm layer does tend to modify by late afternoon/early
evening, but does appear to limit lapse rates and overall
instability to some extent.

Showers and thunderstorms will diminish overnight, with wrap-around
showers and isolated thunder continuing through Monday, along with
noticeably cooler temperatures in the upper-60s to mid-70s.

As for the Heat Advisory today (Sunday)...widespread cloud cover
this morning and onset of showers and thunderstorms late this
morning in the western half of the CWA, it looks like we`ll fall
just short of criteria except for lower elevations of NEPA and
Sullivan County, NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Only minor changes to previous discussion below.

NW flow and cool temps will not stick around for long as the
ridge of high pressure slides eastward and the flow shifts back
to WSWerly Tuesday morning. Mostly clear skies during the
morning hours will allow for temps to climb into the mid to
upper 80s by the afternoon. At least the humidity will remain
relatively low, with dewpoints in the upper 50s, so it will not
feel as sweltering as it has this past week. The ridge looks to
be strong enough to stymie an approaching shortwave and push
precipitation north and south of the area during the afternoon
and evening hours.

The ridge looks to break down Tuesday night, allowing some rain
showers to enter the area from the west. Temps will be warm, only
cooling into the mid to upper 60s as SW flow advects more heat and
moisture into the region.

WAA continues through Wednesday morning, pumping in warm and very
moist air. Dewpoints climb back into the upper 60s across the region
as temperatures warm into the 80s, pushing heat indices back into
the 90s. This combined with a trough sliding into the region from
the Great Lakes will give us our next chance for a severe weather
outbreak. Currently, GFS shows 1500-2500 j/kg of surface based CAPE
across the region with 0-6km bulk shear around 30-35kts. A shortwave
currently looks to be the lifting mechanism to help initiate these
storms, but guidance is still working out how it will play out. The
cold front has been trending a little faster, now moving into the
area Wednesday night. We will have to monitor this trend as a cold
front passage in the late afternoon/early evening would increase
severe chances.

Rain and thunderstorm chances remain across the area through the
night as the cold front pushes through, dissipating by the morning
commute. Temps and dewpoints will fall into the low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Only minor changes to the previous discussion below. Another
cold front with our next chance of showers and thunderstorms
should move through next weekend.


A strong ridge will build in behind the cold front passing
through the area Wednesday night/Thursday morning. NW flow
through the day on Thursday will push drier air into the region,
with dewpoints falling through the day, bottoming out in the low
50s with temps in the 70s. The ridge axis slides east of us on
Friday, warming us back up for the end of the work week and the
weekend. Rain chances should hold off till Saturday as temps
rise back into the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the morning hours. But
widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
early this afternoon into the evening hours. The lacking of
strong forcing at the surface makes timing difficult, with 17Z
to 23Z most favored, though scattered thunderstorms are likely
to linger through 03Z. Stronger storms may produce strong wind
gusts and hail, though probabilities are too low to carry in
TAFs.

A cold front will push through late tonight, with ceilings
trending down to MVFR range after local midnight and for most
areas, closer to dawn.

Outlook...

Monday...Ceiling restrictions, mainly MVFR, but possible fuel
alt, will linger into the late morning or early afternoon.
Scattered showers are also expected to develop through the
afternoon, especially across Central NY.

Monday Night through Tuesday...VFR likely, except possible
valley fog Tuesday morning.

Wednesday through Thursday...Restrictions possible in scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ040-043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...AJG/MPH
SHORT TERM...JTC/MWG
LONG TERM...JTC/MWG
AVIATION...MPH