023
FXUS61 KBGM 240551
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
151 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds, patchy fog, and spotty showers can be expected
into the early morning. While much of the area will be dry
Tuesday, additional disturbances will support shower chances
Tuesday night through Thursday. The pattern will change in time
for the weekend as high pressure settles back in with drier
conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
145 AM Update...
No major changes to the forecast overnight as overcast skies
prevail, with low stratus most common across NEPA and the
Southern Tier. Patchy drizzle will continue in these areas as
well.

930 PM Update...
With the shortwave exiting earlier this evening and the
moisture layer becoming shallower, remaining showers
diminished quickly. That said, clouds and patchy fog will
persist through the night, with some spotty light showers and
perhaps some drizzle.

Previous discussion...
Weak upper level ridging briefly builds back into the region on
Tuesday, with a brief break in precipitation expected before
the next system arrives. As the ridge slides eastwards our
region gets placed in a southerly flow pattern. This will advect
more moisture into our region kicking off more showers
especially late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.
Although a chance of showers will still possible before this
time frame. Otherwise temperatures will be relatively
comfortable Tuesday afternoon with highs ranging in the mid to
upper 60s. Overnight lows will fall into the 50s across the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A warm frontal boundary will slowly move through the region
Wednesday and Thursday with enough lift and moisture to produce some
scattered showers. QPF once again looks on the lighter side with the
highest amounts of a half inch or less. Currently, this system looks
to move fast enough to prevent deeper tropical moisture from
advecting in. A few ensemble outliers do show deeper moisture with
heavier and more widespread rain that extends through Friday. The
general consensus though is for scattered light showers to end by
Thursday night. Highs look to be in the 60`s and 70`s with lows in
the 50`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Two low pressure systems look to do an unusual Fujiwara effect
across the south later this week into early next week. However,
high pressure looks to build across our region throughout most
of this time keeping chances for showers to our south. Fairly
seasonable with 40`s and 50`s for lows with highs getting into
the 70`s for many locations each day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low stratus, with MVFR to IFR conditions, will prevail across
the Southern Tier and NEPA into the morning hours, with
periodic patchy drizzle, especially at higher elevations. ITH
appears to be on the edge of the lower cloud deck presently,
and stratus is expected to encroach on the terminal over the
next couple of hours. However, downsloping SE winds are expected
to keep ceilings in the MVFR category.

Further north, VFR conditions prevail at SYR and RME, though
brief MVFR ceilings will be possible towards dawn.

Ceilings will gradually lift/improve through the late morning
hours, with most sites improving to VFR by the afternoon. Lower
clouds may linger at ELM as a warm front takes shape over
western NY/PA.

Another round of scattered showers will move through the region
late tonight, generally after 04Z.

.Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday Morning...Restrictions likely along
with showers as multiple disturbances pass through the region.
Embedded thunder could also occur later on Wednesday.

Thursday Afternoon through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES/MDP
NEAR TERM...ES/MDP/MPH
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...MDP/MPH