Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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916 FXUS63 KBIS 260612 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 112 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather on Wednesday, with highs ranging from the upper 60s in the Turtle Mountains to lower 80s in far southwest North Dakota. - High chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible over this time period, especially in western North Dakota. 60 mph winds, hail up to the size of golf balls, and a few tornadoes are possible. - Below normal temperatures Friday through Sunday, with highs mostly in the mid 60s to mid 70s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 111 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Two areas of showers continue to track southeast through the eastern Dakotas. The southernmost area, which includes isolated thunderstorms, has exited the state into northeast South Dakota. The northern area has greatly diminished as it approached Jamestown, but gusty winds are associated with it. The Jamestown Airport reported a gust as high as 39 mph around midnight. Lingering showers should exit the forecast area and/or dissipate completely by 3 AM CDT. UPDATE Issued at 945 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 The deck of mid level clouds has penetrated more deeply into northern North Dakota this evening, with scattered observations of light rain showers with up to a few hundreths of an inch of precipitation reported. Some isolated thunder was also detected near Minot, though none has cropped up since as the instability over our area appears to be on a downward trend. For this update, we have increased the coverage of these showers more broadly to account for the overall radar and observation trends. Have also made some adjustments to the sky cover for this update. UPDATE Issued at 646 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 A mid level cloud deck with weak reflectivities have begun to push into the northwest over the past few hours, with the occasional light rainfall observed. For this forecast update, have made some modest adjustments to the sky and PoP grids to account for the latest satellite and radar trends. Otherwise the forecast remains on track, with winds beginning to trend downward at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 For this evening and into the overnight hours, there is a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms across most of the area, with a 30 percent chance in the south central including much of the James River Valley. Anything that develops should move from northwest to southeast. Instability looks rather limited with generally less than 500 J/kg of MUCAPE available, although moderate effective shear of 40 to 50 kts is expected as well. As a result, severe weather seems unlikely. However, a strong thunderstorm or two is possible that may result in small hail and gusty winds. Dry conditions are then on tap for Wednesday before additional shortwaves move through Wednesday night through Thursday night. Initially for Wednesday night through Thursday morning, the result looks to be isolated to scattered sub-severe thunderstorms mainly in the west and south central. For later Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, a more favorable severe weather threat sets up. Though not fully open, high pressure over Minnesota and the Great Lakes Region will advect Gulf Stream moisture into the state, especially the western half. Progged mixed layer dewpoints from this are in the low to mid 50s, which may help MUCAPE values to reach in excess of 2000 J/kg. In addition, plenty of shear to sustain updrafts is also progged for this event. Potential hazards are wind gusts up to 60 mph, golf ball size hail, and a few tornadoes. As storms progress eastward, the environment looks less favorable, though a few severe storms may be possible for central ND as well. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are favored to continue Friday through Friday night, especially in the northern half of the state. However, as supported by CSU Machine Learning, these storms seem unlikely to become severe as of now. Conditions then look to dry out Saturday through Saturday night before showers and thunderstorms return early next week with severe weather chances favored to return. Temperature-wise, expect near average temperatures north this afternoon with seasonably warm temperatures south. This translates to highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Highs for Wednesday are forecast to be below average and in the 70s for all but the southwest where the low 80s are possible. Thursday should be slightly warmer, with most locations remaining in the 70s, although the upper 80s are possible in the southwest. A cooling trend is then expected Friday through Saturday, with high confidence that Saturday will see well below average highs in the mid 60s to around 70. A bit of a warming trend is then favored to start next week as ridging to the west amplifies and slides through the Northern Plains. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 111 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 MVFR ceilings are likely to move over KXWA, KMOT, and KJMS late tonight through Wednesday morning, with a low probability of an IFR ceiling at KMOT. Ceilings should improve to VFR by early afternoon, and VFR conditions are otherwise expected to prevail through the forecast period. Aside from some gusty winds associated with dissipating showers at KJMS to start this forecast period, light and variable winds are expected trough Wednesday afternoon. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...Telken AVIATION...Hollan