753
FNUS73 KBIS 180422
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Ash...BLM
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1122 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2200 CDT on September 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms, currently located along the ND/SD border are forecast
to move north, and will move across the burn site during the early morning hours
(around midnight to 4 AM MDT). It`s possible that some of these storms could
be severe with gusty erratic and damaging winds to 60 mph and quarter sized hail.
Once showers and thunderstorms end, look for partly cloudy skies with south winds
10 to 20 mph. On Wednesday, look for mostly sunny skies in the morning, becoming mostly
cloudy in the afternoon with showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Winds will be gusty and erratic near any afternoon thunderstorms. Surface winds on
Wednesday are expected to be mainly south during the morning 10 to 15 mph with gusts
to 25 mph. Winds are expected to shift southwest in the afternoon and increase to
20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms late this evening
                    through the early overnight hours.
CWR.................66 percent.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................3.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 15 mph shifting to the south
                    10 to 20 mph overnight. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4600 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny in the morning becoming mostly cloudy
                    in the afternoon. Rain showers likely and a slight
                    chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................7 percent.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................2.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around
                    25 mph in the morning. Winds shifting southwest
                    and increasing to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near afternoon
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (127000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...HAMILTON
Requested by...Hannah
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2422658.0/BIS
.DELDT 09/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mtmcc@firenet.gov