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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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363 FXUS64 KBMX 131739 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1239 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2024 Heights are rising today in advance of a large 596dm ridge over the Desert Southwest. The ridge is progged to move eastward across Texas tomorrow producing a warm and dry north to northeast flow across Central Alabama. There is a small chance of a shower or storm this afternoon, mainly east of I-65, resulting from weak surface convergence associated with easterly surface flow from high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region, but chances are generally less than 20 percent. That`s about it in terms of rain potential as the focus turns towards the rising heat levels. Highs will range from the upper 80s to mid 90s this afternoon with overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Plenty of sunshine is expected again tomorrow as 1000-850mb thicknesses continue to rise, suggesting highs in the mid to upper 90s. Those with heat vulnerabilities will need to begin taking extra considerations tomorrow as heat indices will reach 100F for many locations. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 325 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2024 A hot weekend is in store for Central Alabama, with near record highs through Sunday. A 592 dm ridge will be parked over the southern states over the weekend. With light surface winds and mostly sunny skies, temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 90s both days. A few spots may touch 100F on Saturday. Afternoon dew points in the upper 60s will yield heat index values up to 105F Saturday and 100-103F Sunday. If trends hold, a Heat Advisory may be considered for Saturday. With lows Friday night through Sunday night remaining in the low to mid 70s, little relief will be provided before temperatures climb again the next day. This will require more caution than usual for heat-sensitive group or those with prolonged outdoor activities over the weekend. There is a chance for some thunderstorm activity Sunday afternoon, currently forecast over southern and eastern counties. Each afternoon from Monday through Wednesday will feature area-wide chances for thunderstorm activity. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s. 12 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2024 A strong ridge is beginning to build over the region, so VFR conditions are expected to persist for much of this TAF period. There is the small possibility of some short-term fog developing early tomorrow morning, mainly at the northern TAF sites, which could produce limited visibility until it mixes out after sunrise. Surface winds remain light and variable. 86/Martin && .FIRE WEATHER... There is a slight chance for a few showers or storms across eastern Alabama this afternoon, with no rain currently forecast for Friday and Saturday. 20-foot winds should average less than 7 mph with directional variability through the weekend. Afternoon minimum RHs are expected to remain above critical thresholds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 66 95 69 98 / 10 0 0 0 Anniston 68 95 71 97 / 10 0 0 10 Birmingham 70 96 73 98 / 10 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 68 97 72 99 / 10 0 0 0 Calera 70 96 73 99 / 10 0 0 0 Auburn 71 95 74 97 / 10 10 0 10 Montgomery 71 97 73 99 / 10 0 0 10 Troy 70 97 72 99 / 10 10 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86/Martin LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...86/Martin