282
FXUS64 KBMX 230548
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1248 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 825 PM CDT SUN SEP 22 2024

A 500mb ridge will be centered over the Gulf of Mexico with its
axis extending northward across Alabama. The only aside from fair
weather tonight and Monday is the potential for spotty, brief
showers Monday afternoon, similar to Sunday, as forecast soundings
show potential to reach convective temperatures and overcome
subsidence aloft. High temperatures on Monday are forecast to
again reach the lower 90s, between 5-10 degrees above normal for
this time of year.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT SUN SEP 22 2024

With continued model agreement in a cutoff upper low approaching
the area from the northwest by Wednesday and the influx of
tropical moisture from the south, have trended rain chances upward
beginning Wednesday. Details on the forecast for the rest of the
week will depend on the development and eventual track of a
disturbance in the Gulf.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN SEP 22 2024

Upper level ridge along the Gulf coast will help to keep
conditions dry in central Alabama through at least Monday night.
By Tuesday, the ridge is flattened a bit by an upper trough
moving across the Ohio valley, which helps push a surface front
onto our doorstep to the northwest. By the time the front gets
here, low level convergence associated with it is rather week. It
could produce a few showers or even a thunderstorm or two, but the
main impact from this first trough/front may likely just end up
being more clouds and a moderation of temperatures.

However, that lead shortwave is quickly followed up by a more
substantial trough that digs southward into the midwest/midsouth
region. It is with this deepening trough that the global models
start to diverge. And those model differences (in timing,
placement, and strength) remain important in determining whether
or not any potential tropical system entering the Gulf would have
direct, peripheral, borderline, or null impacts for us here in
central Alabama. Therefore, we shall keep using model blends to
keep from focusing on any particular run of any particular model,
which will in turn allow us to keep forecast update options open
(in either direction) as we get into the end of the week into next
weekend.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the cycle with just isolated areas
of MVFR visibilities between 10 and 13z. Otherwise, look for
light/variable to near calm winds through the morning then 5 to 7
kts after 15z though 23 to 1z. There will be a chance for some
isolated SHRA/TSRA in the afternoon with heating, but chances are
too low to mention in TAFs at this time.


AMD NOT SKED for KANB UFN due to a comms issue.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated showers or storms are possible Monday and Tuesday
afternoons across the north, but expect most of the area to remain
dry. With temperatures in the 90s and a modestly dry airmass in
place, minimum RH values should range from 38 to 55 percent
through Tuesday. 20 foot winds will be westerly to southwesterly
at less than 7 mph. An increase in moisture is expected for
by Wednesday, with increased rain chances through the end of the
work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     93  69  91  66 /  20  10  20  40
Anniston    93  70  91  68 /  20  10  10  30
Birmingham  93  72  91  69 /  20  10  20  40
Tuscaloosa  94  70  92  68 /  20   0  20  40
Calera      93  71  91  70 /  20   0  10  30
Auburn      93  71  91  70 /  10   0   0  20
Montgomery  95  72  94  71 /  10   0   0  20
Troy        94  69  91  69 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89^GSatterwhite
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...16