Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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310 FXUS64 KBMX 141722 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1213 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2024 Mostly sunny skies, light northeasterly flow, and rising heights will promote dry and hot conditions as we head into the weekend. The center of the 591dam ridge will shift from Texas to the Deep South through tomorrow resulting in near record temperatures across Central Alabama. The dry conditions will cause RH to mix down into the 30 to 40 percent range both today and tomorrow, but highs in the mid to upper 90s will push heat indices towards Heat Advisory criteria. Some locations may reach a heat index of 105F, but it`s more likely that we will see values ranging from 100-103F. Hot nonetheless, especially this early in the season, and heat- sensitive individuals or those who will be spending time outdoors will need to factor in extra safety considerations for the heat. Little relief is expected overnight as lows remain anomalously warm with values ranging from the lower to mid 70s. The center of the ridge will be directly overhead by Saturday evening. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1213 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2024 The extended period will feature predominantly hot and dry weather across central Alabama. An amplified 500 millibar ridge axis will be positioned across the Mid Atlantic on Sunday with weak southerly flow across the state. This will help low level/Gulf moisture slowly creep northward across the region. We may see some isolated diurnal storms but most areas will remain rain free on Sunday. The combination of temperatures in the middle to upper 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will produce maximum heat indices between 100 and 104 - nearing advisory criteria. Low temperatures will also be quite warm allowing very little diurnal relief. This prolonged period of above normal temperatures, although below traditional advisory levels, will require more caution than usual for heat-sensitive groups or those with prolonged outdoor activities on Sunday and potentially into early week. Monday and perhaps into Tuesday looks to be more of the same with the newest guidance showing the H5 ridge hanging tough across the Mid Atlantic region. The blended numbers are a touch cooler for both both days with some higher pops in the west/southwest (particularly on Monday). However, the 12z guidance trends lead me to believe that the NBM may be a touch on the low side (for temps) on Monday/Tuesday. The mid level ridge begins to break down slightly by mid week due to height falls/energy impulses to our west. Overall, the pattern still looks dry/mostly dry with above normal temps through the end of the upcoming work week. 15 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2024 Localized valley fog has developed this morning, with MVFR vis impacting TOI. Fog will mix out quickly this morning, with vis improving by 13Z. VFR conditions expected thereafter, with clear skies and light and variable winds at less than 5kts. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions are expected this afternoon through Saturday afternoon with min RH ranging from 30-40 percent. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon, mainly across southern and eastern areas. 20-foot winds should average less than 7 mph with directional variability through Monday morning. Some thunderstorms will be possible on Monday as well, but highest chances will shift to the western areas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 69 95 70 96 / 0 10 0 10 Anniston 71 96 73 95 / 0 10 0 20 Birmingham 74 98 74 97 / 0 10 0 10 Tuscaloosa 73 98 74 97 / 0 10 0 10 Calera 74 98 74 97 / 0 10 0 20 Auburn 74 95 74 94 / 0 10 10 20 Montgomery 73 98 74 97 / 0 10 10 20 Troy 71 98 73 96 / 0 10 10 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86/Martin LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...86/Martin