Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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440 FXUS64 KBMX 172359 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 659 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 149 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2024 Plenty of sunshine is ongoing across much of the Deep South today, with much of the deepest tropical moisture now relegated across locations near the Gulf Coast. A stalled surface front is located across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, with scattered shower activity along and south of the boundary. Meanwhile, the surface low to our northeast is moving close to the Smoky Mountains in western North Carolina. We`re seeing an area of convergence that has developed on the southwestern side of the low over the northern counties of Central Alabama. We`ve got just enough lift to produce some shallow shower activity, and agitated cu is showing up on visible satellite. As a result, we`ve added in a slight chance of showers north of the I-20 corridor, along with leaving in a slight chance of showers across the south closest to the stalled front. Otherwise, most other locations will stay dry today. Forecast highs are well on track to top out in the mid to upper 80s areawide. Overnight tonight, we`ll be watching once again for fog development that could get locally dense. For now, have added in patchy fog in many locations and may have to expand coverage of the fog and lower visibilities based on evening trends. Lows should be fairly pleasant overnight, ranging from the upper 50s north to the mid 60s south. With the closed low still spinning off to our northeast on Wednesday, we should see some extra cloud cover over our eastern and northeastern counties. We certainly can`t rule out a shower or two, especially seeing the development that`s out there this afternoon. For now, we`ve left out PoPs for the time being, but may need to add in a slight chance by the time tomorrow morning rolls around. Highs will remain rather warm in the mid to upper 80s. 56/GDG && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 347 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2024 No major changes to the long-term forecast. 40/Sizemore Previous long-term discussion: (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 319 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2024 Drier northerly flow continues Thursday into Friday as the main trough axis remains to our east. Then, high pressure builds in with an amplified ridge aloft Friday through the weekend. This will lead to continued dry weather through early next week. The upper ridge begins to break down Sunday into Monday, but the high pressure in the lower levels persists, which should keep any rain chances well to our north. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2024 VFR cigs extending into the NE 1/3 of C AL this evening from the low over SC. The cigs are generally from 6-10kft, and coverage should decrease over the next few hours. Some lingering low level moisture will help generate some patchy fog tonight in the NE sections. I have an MVFR VSBY mention at ASN/ANB 9-12z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with generally light winds. However, there could be enough mixing in the afternoon on Wed for NW winds 5-7kts. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Only a few showers are observed across Central Alabama this afternoon. 20 ft winds remain northwesterly at around 5 mph, and wills will be northerly to northwesterly tomorrow. Min RHs will generally be at or above 50% for the next few days, with isolated spots of 40-50% possible, depending on mixing. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 59 86 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 61 86 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 62 86 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 62 88 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 63 87 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 64 87 68 87 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 66 89 67 89 / 10 0 10 0 Troy 65 86 67 88 / 10 0 10 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56/GDG LONG TERM....40/Sizemore/25/Owen AVIATION...08