Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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487 FXUS64 KBMX 151745 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1245 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2024 Key Messages: - The combination of high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with increasing humidity will create heat index values near and just over 100 degrees this afternoon. This afternoon. Broad mid-level ridging was centered over Central Mississippi while strong and expansive surface high pressure was centered over the Eastern Great Lakes Region. A weak surface boundary is analyzed from west to east across the area, generally along Interstate 20. However, analysis of surface thermal and moisture fields show very little to no differentiation across this feature. The presence of the boundary may provide sufficient low-level convergence to support a few pop-up showers and possibly a storm or two this afternoon and into the evening due to the high temperatures forecast across the area. Any development would be widely isolated and localized due to relatively slow storm motions. The combination of increasing humidity with high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will create heat index values generally from around 100 to near 104 with the higher readings expected across portions of the south and the west. Winds will be from the east to southeast at 4-8 mph. High temperatures will range from the mid 90s in the higher elevations east to the upper 90s south and west. Tonight. Mid-level ridging will remain in place to our west while a weak mid-level disturbance moves north toward the area from the southeast. This feature may be accompanied by a low-level surface trough reflection that would be across the southern portion of the state this evening and slowly lift northwest overnight. The presence of this additional boundary in the lower levels will also contribute to widely isolated shower and storm potential this evening. Winds will be from the southeast at 3-6 mph. Low temperatures will range from the upper 60s far east to the low and mid 70s west and central. Sunday. Mid to upper level ridging will become positioned overhead while a lingering weak disturbance looks to continue to advance northwest with time on Sunday. The surface front will stall over the area and begin lifting northward as warm front into Sunday while the surface trough moves northwest with time. These features, along with any outflow boundaries from convection today, will provide more support for surface convergence and result in slightly higher potential for showers and some thunderstorms that would be most likely to develop in the heat of the day. Winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph. High temperatures will range from the lower 90s in the higher elevations east to the mid to upper 90s elsewhere. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 324 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2024 A deep-layer ridge will be centered over North Carolina on Monday, opening the door to south-southeast flow in the 850-500 mb layer across Alabama. This will lead to a significant increase in PWAT values over the western third of our state. A moisture gradient from west to east will correspond with POPs ranging from 50 percent along the AL/MS state line to 20 percent on our eastern border. The ridge axis will swing back to the west on Tuesday, and as flow becomes more easterly, PWAT values should drop below 1.5 inches across most of the area. Accordingly, any showers and thunderstorms should be isolated in nature and confined to our western counties. A large area of subsidence and below normal moisture content will persist across the region for Wednesday and Thursday with no rain expected. A tropical wave embedded within easterly flow could begin to reach our eastern counties on Friday along with a slight increase in rain chances. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. A very small chance for a pop up shower or storm is forecast later this afternoon into the evening. Expect light winds overnight with scattered lingering clouds over the area followed by an isolated chance of a pop up shower or storm on Sunday with best potential during the afternoon through early evening hours. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions are expected through Sunday morning, with the exception of a couple showers or storms east of I-65 this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon across much of the area, although coverage still looks to be fairly limited. 20- foot winds will be light and variable through Sunday morning, becoming southeasterly up to 6-8 mph through Monday evening. Afternoon min RH values are expected to drop into the 35-45 percent today and Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 70 96 71 91 / 10 30 10 20 Anniston 72 95 72 92 / 20 20 10 20 Birmingham 74 98 74 92 / 20 20 10 30 Tuscaloosa 73 98 74 90 / 20 20 10 40 Calera 72 97 74 91 / 20 20 10 30 Auburn 72 95 74 90 / 20 20 10 20 Montgomery 73 97 74 92 / 10 20 20 30 Troy 71 95 72 92 / 10 20 20 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...05