498
FXUS64 KBMX 201652
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1152 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI SEP 20 2024

An impressive 500 mb ridge will become centered over South Texas
today with a ridge axis extending to the northeast. Along with
height rises, anticylonic curvature of deep-layer flow will
promote subsidence and drying of the column, resulting in a slight
upward trend in temperatures compared to previous days. Lower 90s
should be widespread this afternoon, and a few spots could reach
the mid 90s. Similar conditions are expected Saturday as the ridge
slowly nudges eastward.

87/Grantham

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI SEP 20 2024

Status quo remains in the long term. Upper level ridging tries to
remain established across the southeast states into early next
week, keeping us in a rain free subsidence zone. By Tuesday, an
upper trough flattens the top of the southeast ridge a bit,
allowing some lift and slightly better low level moisture to get
into central Alabama. Will maintain slight chance to chance POPs
in our area through this time frame.

For Wednesday and beyond, forecast confidence really starts to
nosedive as model spread starts to really increase. And that
includes the tropical Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Got to chuckle
at least a little bit at the global model ensemble members that
individually have surface lows of varying strength (including
nothing at all) stretched across just about any position of the
Gulf by this time next week. Suffice to say now is not the time
to bite on any single run of any single model, regarding potential
tropical impacts for us next week.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT FRI SEP 20 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Expect fair
weather cumulus to become widespread this afternoon with low-level
winds from the north at 3-6 kts. Look for mostly clear skies
overnight with light north to northeast winds from 1-3 kts.
Scattered clouds are expected toward midday Saturday as dry
conditions persist with low-level winds from the northeast to east
at 3-6 kts.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances will remain at zero through the weekend as high
pressure takes hold. With temperatures climbing back into the 90s
and a modestly dry airmass in place, RH values should range from
35 to 45 percent each afternoon through Sunday. 20 foot winds will
remain less than 7 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  63  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    90  65  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  90  68  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  92  67  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      90  66  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      89  68  89  70 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  91  68  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        89  67  90  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....61
AVIATION...05