440
FXUS64 KBMX 172359
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
659 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2024

Plenty of sunshine is ongoing across much of the Deep South today,
with much of the deepest tropical moisture now relegated across
locations near the Gulf Coast. A stalled surface front is located
across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, with scattered
shower activity along and south of the boundary. Meanwhile, the
surface low to our northeast is moving close to the Smoky
Mountains in western North Carolina. We`re seeing an area of
convergence that has developed on the southwestern side of the low
over the northern counties of Central Alabama. We`ve got just
enough lift to produce some shallow shower activity, and agitated
cu is showing up on visible satellite. As a result, we`ve added in
a slight chance of showers north of the I-20 corridor, along with
leaving in a slight chance of showers across the south closest to
the stalled front. Otherwise, most other locations will stay dry
today. Forecast highs are well on track to top out in the mid to
upper 80s areawide.

Overnight tonight, we`ll be watching once again for fog
development that could get locally dense. For now, have added in
patchy fog in many locations and may have to expand coverage of
the fog and lower visibilities based on evening trends. Lows
should be fairly pleasant overnight, ranging from the upper 50s
north to the mid 60s south. With the closed low still spinning off
to our northeast on Wednesday, we should see some extra cloud
cover over our eastern and northeastern counties. We certainly
can`t rule out a shower or two, especially seeing the development
that`s out there this afternoon. For now, we`ve left out PoPs for
the time being, but may need to add in a slight chance by the time
tomorrow morning rolls around. Highs will remain rather warm in
the mid to upper 80s.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2024

No major changes to the long-term forecast.

40/Sizemore

Previous long-term discussion:
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2024

Drier northerly flow continues Thursday into Friday as the main
trough axis remains to our east. Then, high pressure builds in with
an amplified ridge aloft Friday through the weekend. This will lead
to continued dry weather through early next week. The upper ridge
begins to break down Sunday into Monday, but the high pressure in
the lower levels persists, which should keep any rain chances well
to our north.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2024

VFR cigs extending into the NE 1/3 of C AL this evening from the
low over SC. The cigs are generally from 6-10kft, and coverage
should decrease over the next few hours. Some lingering low level
moisture will help generate some patchy fog tonight in the NE
sections. I have an MVFR VSBY mention at ASN/ANB 9-12z. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected with generally light winds. However,
there could be enough mixing in the afternoon on Wed for NW winds
5-7kts.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Only a few showers are observed across Central Alabama this
afternoon. 20 ft winds remain northwesterly at around 5 mph, and
wills will be northerly to northwesterly tomorrow. Min RHs will
generally be at or above 50% for the next few days, with isolated
spots of 40-50% possible, depending on mixing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     59  86  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    61  86  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  62  86  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  62  88  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      63  87  67  89 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      64  87  68  87 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  66  89  67  89 /  10   0  10   0
Troy        65  86  67  88 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....40/Sizemore/25/Owen
AVIATION...08