163
FXUS64 KBMX 220900
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
400 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN SEP 22 2024

Upper-air features relevant to our forecast include a trough
extending from the central Plains to the Desert Southwest, and
ridge centered near the TX/LA Gulf Coast. Anticylonic flow
associated with the ridge should continue to suppress diurnal
convection across our area this afternoon. Temperatures will once
again top out in the lower 90s for most locations. Signs of a
pattern change are evident for Monday as the trough and ridge
shift eastward. Height falls should begin over North Alabama,
but stronger 500 mb will remain well to the north. As the ridge
relents, isolated convection appears possible just north of our
counties that border WFO Huntsville.

87/Grantham

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN SEP 22 2024

Upper level ridge along the Gulf coast will help to keep
conditions dry in central Alabama through at least Monday night.
By Tuesday, the ridge is flattened a bit by an upper trough
moving across the Ohio valley, which helps push a surface front
onto our doorstep to the northwest. By the time the front gets
here, low level convergence associated with it is rather week. It
could produce a few showers or even a thunderstorm or two, but the
main impact from this first trough/front may likely just end up
being more clouds and a moderation of temperatures.

However, that lead shortwave is quickly followed up by a more
substantial trough that digs southward into the midwest/midsouth
region. It is with this deepening trough that the global models
start to diverge. And those model differences (in timing,
placement, and strength) remain important in determining whether
or not any potential tropical system entering the Gulf would have
direct, peripheral, borderline, or null impacts for us here in
central Alabama. Therefore, we shall keep using model blends to
keep from focusing on any particular run of any particular model,
which will in turn allow us to keep forecast update options open
(in either direction) as we get into the end of the week into next
weekend.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 AM CDT SUN SEP 22 2024

No impacts are expected to the TAF sites through the next 24
hours. VFR conditions will continue with variable or westerly
winds of 6 knots or less.

87/Grantham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances will remain near zero through Monday as high
pressure prevails. With temperatures in the 90s and a modestly dry
airmass in place, minimum RH values should range from 35 to 50
percent through Monday. 20 foot winds will be westerly or variable
at less than 7 mph. An increase in moisture is expected for
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     93  67  92  68 /   0   0  10   0
Anniston    93  69  92  70 /   0   0  10   0
Birmingham  93  71  92  71 /   0   0  10   0
Tuscaloosa  94  71  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      93  70  92  72 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      92  70  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  94  71  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        92  69  92  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87/Grantham
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...87/Grantham