318
FXUS64 KBMX 221942
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
242 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT SUN SEP 22 2024

This afternoon.

Elongated mid-level ridging extended from over much of Central
Mexico northeast to over the Northwest Gulf of Mexico. Surface
high pressure over Southeast Canada continues to extend southwest
down the Appalachians into the Deep South Region. A few
disturbances in the zonal flow pattern over portions of the
Tennessee and Ohio River Valley Regions continue to move east and
will support the potential for a few showers across the far
northern tier of counties this afternoon into the evening hours.

Expect partly cloudy skies this afternoon. There will be a small
chance for a few light showers across portions of the far northern
portion of the area this afternoon and evening. Winds will be
from the northwest at 4-8 mph. High temperatures will range from
around 90 in the higher elevations east to the mid 90s west and
southwest.

Tonight.

Elongated mid-level ridging will shrink in extent with time
overnight, becoming centered over the Northwest Gulf of Mexico
while an upper-level disturbance over Colorado progresses eastward
as a open wave over the Central Plains late tonight. A surface
cold front will advance southeast across the Plains, extending
from Northern Ohio southwest into Central Arkansas toward daybreak
while residual surface high pressure remains across much of the
Eastern portion of the country.

Look for mostly clear skies south with partly cloudy skies to the
north overnight. Some patchy fog may briefly develop toward
sunrise across portions of the north-central and northwest areas.
Winds will be light overnight from the northwest. Low temperatures
will range from the mid 60s in the higher elevations east to
around 70 west and central.

Monday.

Mid-level ridging will continue to contract with time over the
Northern Gulf west to over Northern Mexico while troughing
continues to develop over the Central and Northern Plains. A
surface front will slowly advance further east, extending from
Kentucky southwest into Northwest Louisiana by late in the
afternoon. Surface high pressure will migrate further northeast
with its presence weakening further with time.

Look for partly cloudy skies Monday with isolated showers and a
few storms forecast across the northern third of the area with
lower chances across the central counties and very low chances
further south. Winds will be from the northwest at 4-8 mph. High
temperatures will range from around 90 far north and in the higher
elevations east to readings in the mid 90s southwest.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT SUN SEP 22 2024

With continued model agreement in a cutoff upper low approaching
the area from the northwest by Wednesday and the influx of
tropical moisture from the south, have trended rain chances upward
beginning Wednesday. Details on the forecast for the rest of the
week will depend on the development and eventual track of a
disturbance in the Gulf.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN SEP 22 2024

Upper level ridge along the Gulf coast will help to keep
conditions dry in central Alabama through at least Monday night.
By Tuesday, the ridge is flattened a bit by an upper trough
moving across the Ohio valley, which helps push a surface front
onto our doorstep to the northwest. By the time the front gets
here, low level convergence associated with it is rather week. It
could produce a few showers or even a thunderstorm or two, but the
main impact from this first trough/front may likely just end up
being more clouds and a moderation of temperatures.

However, that lead shortwave is quickly followed up by a more
substantial trough that digs southward into the midwest/midsouth
region. It is with this deepening trough that the global models
start to diverge. And those model differences (in timing,
placement, and strength) remain important in determining whether
or not any potential tropical system entering the Gulf would have
direct, peripheral, borderline, or null impacts for us here in
central Alabama. Therefore, we shall keep using model blends to
keep from focusing on any particular run of any particular model,
which will in turn allow us to keep forecast update options open
(in either direction) as we get into the end of the week into next
weekend.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT SUN SEP 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected through Monday morning. Expect
scattered cumulus developing over the area this afternoon with
low-level winds from the northwest at 3-6 kts. A shower or two
will be possible across the far north/northeast this afternoon and
evening but chances are quite low. Overnight, expect some
scattered clouds north with near calm winds. There will be
potential for some limited reductions to visibility before sunrise
Monday across portions of the north and northwest areas.
Scattered clouds are expected on Monday with isolated showers
across the north toward late morning with scattered clouds south
and broken clouds north. Winds will be from the northwest at 2-4
kts.

AMD NOT SKED for KANB due to equipment communication issues until
further notice.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated showers or storms are possible Monday and Tuesday
afternoons across the north, but expect most of the area to remain
dry. With temperatures in the 90s and a modestly dry airmass in
place, minimum RH values should range from 38 to 55 percent
through Tuesday. 20 foot winds will be westerly to southwesterly
at less than 7 mph. An increase in moisture is expected for
by Wednesday, with increased rain chances through the end of the
work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     67  91  68  91 /  10  20   0  20
Anniston    68  91  70  91 /  10  20   0  10
Birmingham  70  91  71  91 /   0  10   0  20
Tuscaloosa  69  93  71  91 /   0  10   0  20
Calera      69  92  72  91 /   0  10   0  10
Auburn      69  92  71  91 /   0  10   0   0
Montgomery  69  94  72  94 /   0  10   0   0
Troy        68  93  70  91 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05