371
FXUS64 KBMX 230801
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
301 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 115 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2024

Central Alabama will be switching from a northeast to a weak
northwest flow thanks to a trough amplifying over the Northeast
CONUS. A weak cold front will slide from Kentucky and Tennessee
this afternoon and into our area overnight into Monday morning. A
pre-frontal axis of PWATs near 2 inches will move in just ahead
of this. The model consensus develop isolated to scattered
convection just along the front, so increased PoPs across the
northern 2/3rds of the area. Not expected anything more a few
storms as mid-level lapse rates will be poor with weak shear and
limited forcing/convergence. As is typical this time of year,
there won`t be any cool air with the front but there will be a
pronounced moisture gradient, with the better moisture shifting to
the southern counties by Monday afternoon. With most of the
showers and storms south of the area, clouds will decrease and we
will warm up quickly behind the front. Dew points will mix out
some in the afternoon, but not quite as much as previous days
given the increased moisture, so heat indices may reach 105
degrees in spots, especially in the south and southwest.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2024

Key messages:

- The heat wave continues Tuesday with temperatures near 100
  degrees areawide. Humidity levels have trended downward but heat
  indices may still reach 105 degrees in portions of West
  Alabama.

- Showers and storms may be strong on Wednesday with gusty winds.

- After a slight respite, the heat wave returns Friday through the
  weekend with potential for a prolonged period of heat indices
  near 105 degrees.

While the center of the subtropical ridge will remain centered
over New Mexico and the Texas Trans-Pecos on Tuesday, weak
shortwave ridging will be present over Central Alabama aloft and
at low-levels. An old frontal boundary/dry line like feature will
be draped somewhere near our southern and western borders. With
this feature trending further south and west, have reduced PoPs
for isolated convection developing near the boundary, and also
lowered dew points. The dry air mass and dry ground conditions
will warm efficiently, with air temperatures near 100F across much
of the area. With dew points mixing out more, heat indices have
trended downward but may still reach 105 in parts of West
Alabama. A weak convectively enhanced shortwave in northwest flow
aloft will approach the area Wednesday with weak troughing
developing over the Southeast and PWATs increasing to near 2
inches. Spread in the timing and placement of this feature has
increased in the guidance, with some indications of
slower/westward trend in some of the guidance. PoPs have decreased
slightly in East Alabama where temperatures have increased. Will
continue to monitor for any upstream MCS development with typical
uncertainty regarding where this occurs and any gusty wind
potential with thunderstorm clusters. The trough may linger near
our southeast counties with enhanced rain chances there on
Thursday, while ridging begins to build back to the east over the
Lower Mississippi Valley. Thursday looks like the "coolest" day of
the period with highs in the low to mid 90s.

Strong subtropical ridging builds across the Southeast and
Southern Plains Friday through the weekend while a couple weak
easterly waves move near the Gulf Coast. The heat wave returns for
Central Alabama but PWATs will be higher than the previous ridge,
meaning more humidity and some isolated to scattered showers and
storms. A prolonged period of heat indices near 105 may be setting
up Friday through next weekend and beyond.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2024

VFR conditions for the next 18 to 21 hours, with increasing clouds
after 00z. A weak boundary will slide down into the northern sites
between 3 and 6z with isolated to scattered coverage. Added in
Prob30 at all sites, except MGM and TOI. May need to add in at MGM
withe the next set.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions will continue through this afternoon. 20 foot
winds become westerly at 4 to 6 mph. Afternoon RH values should
range from 30 to 40 percent this afternoon. Overnight RH values
will be above 80 percent. Scattered rain chances return tonight
into Monday, with an increase in minimum RH values. RH values drop
down into the 30 to 35 percent range on Tuesday in many areas.
Isolated storms may be possible across the south and southwest on
Tuesday, with better chances on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     97  72  97  68 /  10  30  10   0
Anniston    96  74  95  69 /  10  30  10   0
Birmingham  98  76  98  74 /  10  30  10   0
Tuscaloosa  98  75  97  74 /  10  30  20   0
Calera      98  76  98  72 /   0  30  20   0
Auburn      96  74  95  73 /   0  20  30  10
Montgomery  97  75  96  74 /   0  20  30  10
Troy        97  73  97  73 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....32/Davis
AVIATION...16