Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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203 FXUS64 KBMX 191832 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 132 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 132 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024 This afternoon. Abnormally strong mid-level ridging remained centered over the Mid-Atlantic Region at midday, while an upper trough was identified by multispectral satellite imagery over the Bahamas and South Florida. The forecast area is positioned between strong surface high pressure centered off the Northeast Seaboard and Tropical Storm Alberto that was over the far Southwest Gulf of Mexico moving west toward Northeast Mexico. Partly cloudy skies are forecast across the area this afternoon with thicker clouds across the far south and southwest. There is a plume of deep-layer moisture over portions of southwest counties per RAP 13 km analysis where precipitable water values are over 1.6 inches and this is where low PoPs less than 20 percent were introduced for the duration of the afternoon. Light echoes on radar are generally moving northeast within this corridor and will continue through early evening. Otherwise, winds will generally be from the east breezy at times from 6-12 mph due to the tighter surface pressure gradient. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s far north and in the higher terrain east to the low 90s south, west and central. Tonight. The anomalous upper ridge will become more elongated overnight, extending from off the Mid-Atlantic Coast southwest to over the Mid-South Region while the mid to upper low remains over the Bahamas and South Florida. Surface high pressure will become centered across the Mid-Atlantic and will extend southwest down the spine of the Appalachian Mountains while Alberto approaches the Northeast Coast of Mexico. Clouds will decrease overnight with fair and dry conditions overnight. Winds will relax and the pressure gradient loosens and with the loss of vertical mixing with east winds from 3-6 mph. Lows will range from the upper 60s east and far north to the lower 70s southwest and central. Friday. Very strong ridging will continue to migrate southwest on Thursday, extending from over the Mid-Atlantic Region southwest to over the ArkLaTex region. Surface high pressure will remain centered to our northeast. Expect partly cloudy skies Friday with winds from the east at 5-10 mph. High temperatures will range from near 90 far north and in the higher elevations east to the low and mid 90s south, west and central. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 357 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2024 The center of a 596 dam ridge at 500 mb will be centered over Tennessee on Friday on its southwestward course from the Mid- Atlantic states. The proximity of the ridge and high heights along with a weakening of cooler easterly flow, should correspond with a nudge upward in temperatures. Much of the area should see mid 90s on Friday and Saturday with a couple of spots possibly reaching the upper 90s. On Sunday the ridge should retreat westward and amplify, resulting in the development of a trough over the eastern CONUS. As this occurs, westerly low-level flow will promote similar temperatures despite height falls. As enhanced moisture arrives with southeasterly flow on Saturday and remains in place on Sunday, isolated or scattered showers and storms will return for areas mainly along and south of Interstate 20. Rain chances could continue to increase on Monday and Tuesday as height falls continue across the region. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Scattered to broken clouds are expected this afternoon with thicker clouds south in the mid to upper levels. Expect scattered clouds overnight followed by few to scattered clouds tomorrow with more clouds to the southwest. There could be a passing shower or storm this afternoon southwest but this potential is away from any terminal. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain-free conditions will persist through Friday as easterly winds bring drier air to the region. Afternoon RH values should range from 35 to 45 percent range each day through Friday. Easterly 20 ft winds of 7 to 12 mph are expected today, and a gradual decrease in speeds should follow into Thursday and Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 68 93 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 69 92 67 93 / 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 72 94 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 72 94 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 71 93 69 94 / 0 0 0 10 Auburn 69 91 69 91 / 0 0 0 10 Montgomery 70 93 70 94 / 0 10 0 10 Troy 69 92 68 93 / 0 10 0 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...05