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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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145 FXUS64 KBMX 121845 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 145 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 145 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2024 This afternoon. The forecast area is positioned between a stubborn upper low over Northeast Maine and an elongated mid-level ridge that extends from over portions of Arizona and New Mexico southward over Northwest Mexico. There is a weakness in the mid levels over the lower Mississippi River Valley Region. A stationary front remains to our south, extending from near Houston eastward to across the Florida Big Bend. Surface high pressure extends from Upstate New York southwest toward the Ozarks of Northern Arkansas. Partly cloudy skies will persist over the area as enough moisture aloft will remain in place as a mid-level weakness moves northeast over the area later this afternoon and into the evening. A deep slug of dry air was sampled on the BMX 12/12z sounding and much of the area will remain dry. There will be a small chance late this afternoon into the early evening for areas generally east of I-65 and near and southeast of I-85 to see a few showers and storms. Winds will be from the east to southeast with speeds from 4-8 mph. Highs will range from the upper 80s far northwest to the low 90s far southeast. Tonight. The mid-level weakness moves overhead overnight and persists, while the surface front to our south becomes aligned from the southwest to northeast from offshore of the Louisiana coast to near Tallahassee. A weak surface low continues to be progged to develop, aided by the disturbance aloft. Will maintain a 10 percent chance of a few showers and storms overnight across the far southeast portion of the area. Otherwise, dry conditions will continue elsewhere with skies ranging from mostly clear northwest to partly cloudy southeast. Similar to this morning, some brief patchy fog may form near the Coosa and Tallapoosa water features and perhaps some development may occur across the far northwest before sunrise Thursday morning. Winds will be from the east to northeast with speeds from 2-4 mph. Low temperatures will range from the low 60s north and west to near 70 far southeast. Thursday. The mid-level weakness will expand, extending from over the Northeast Gulf of Mexico northeast to over the Southern Mid Atlantic States. The stationary front to our south will move further east as a cold front, advancing into Central Florida by early afternoon. Broad surface high pressure will build further into the area from the northwest as mid level ridging expands east over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley. Partly cloudy skies are forecast through the morning with isolated showers and a few thunderstorms possible, generally across the eastern portion of the area through late morning. This activity will shift east of the area by the afternoon as the surface front moves further away from the area. Dry conditions will return areawide by the afternoon with decreasing clouds across the east and southeast. Winds will be from the east and northeast at 5-8 mph. With rising heights and higher surface pressures, high temperatures will start to increase with readings from the low 90s far northwest and in the higher terrain east to the mid 90s across much of the south and southwest. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 343 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2024 Hot and dry conditions will take hold across the region on Friday as a deep layer ridge moves eastward from the Southern Plains. This ridge will continue moving eastward through the weekend and become centered over Georgia on Sunday. During this stretch, temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 90s each afternoon. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s should keep heat indices in the 95 to 102 degree range. We continue to observe significant disagreement in model guidance regarding a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico and the associated slug of tropical moisture. The ECMWF continues to indicate a ridge holding firm over the Southeast CONUS through Tuesday with isolated diurnal convection. However, the GFS now splits the Gulf disturbance in two with a portion of it heading for Mississippi and Alabama. The GFS has been overzealous with the development of a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico for many days while also being inconsistent. For this forecast update, POPs continue to be aligned with the drier scenario portrayed in our previous forecasts. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Expect mainly scattered high clouds this afternoon into the evening. There will be a very low chance for a few showers or storms across the far southeast, near TOI, but potential was too low to include. Some brief patchy fog may again develop near the Coosa and Tallapoosa rivers before sunrise on Thursday and there will be similar potential across portions of our northwest counties. Scattered mid and high clouds are forecast on Thursday with isolated showers with a few storms possible that may affect MGM, TOI, ASN and ANB but chances are too low to include for this cycle. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... Other than isolated rain chances in the far southeast Thursday afternoon, rain free conditions are expected through Saturday. RHs are forecast to remain above critical thresholds, dropping as low as 30-35 percent at times, each afternoon. Overnight RH values recover to above 85 percent tonight and Thursday night. 20-foot winds at less then 6mph will have some directional variability through Saturday due to the influence of surface ridging. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 63 93 68 95 / 0 20 0 0 Anniston 65 93 69 95 / 0 20 0 10 Birmingham 65 95 70 96 / 0 10 0 0 Tuscaloosa 64 95 68 97 / 0 10 0 0 Calera 64 94 70 96 / 0 10 0 0 Auburn 69 93 72 96 / 10 20 0 10 Montgomery 67 95 72 97 / 0 20 0 10 Troy 68 95 71 97 / 10 20 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...05