Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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659 FXUS64 KBMX 191726 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1226 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 1226 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2024 This afternoon. Broad mid-level ridging is over much of Texas while troughing is positioned roughly along the Eastern Seaboard. Surface high pressure extended from Southeast Canada southwest through the Ohio River Valley down through the Mid-South and into far Southeast Texas while a weak stationary front extends from offshore of the Southeast Atlantic Coast westward across tar South Georgia into the Wiregrass Region of far Southeast Alabama. Expect partly cloudy skies this afternoon with dry conditions across the area. Winds will be from the northwest at 4-8 mph. High temperatures will range from the mid 80s in the higher elevations far east to the low 90s across the far west and portions of the southern counties. Tonight. Broad ridging aloft will persist over much of the Lone Star State overnight while the East Coast trough slowly moves further east. Surface high pressure migrates further east, extending from Upstate New York southwest down the Appalachians into North Georgia and extending further southwest to over the Gulf Coast Region while the weak surface boundary loses definition well to our southeast. Fair skies are forecast areawide while some brief patchy fog may develop across portions of the northwest and east-central counties before sunrise Friday morning. Winds will be light from the northeast at 2-4 mph overnight. Low temperatures will range from around 60 far northeast to the mid 60s southwest and central. Friday. Mid-level ridging will inch closer to the area from the southwest with the feature becoming centered over the San Antonio area. A northeast flow will develop in the lower levels with strong surface high pressure continuing to build into the area from the northeast, extending from Coastal Atlantic Canada down the Appalachians and into the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi River Valley Regions. Expect partly cloudy skies Friday with northeast winds from 4-8 mph. Dry conditions will continue across the area as high temperatures range from the upper 80s in the higher terrain east to readings in the lower 90s across the west and central counties. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 353 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2024 With an upper level ridge building into the southeast states at the start of the long term, conditions will remain dry with a gradual warming trend for central Alabama. There`s a shortwave trough (or series of troughs) that is forecast to scoot across the top of the ridge early next week, which could tease us with a cold front. However, model blends suggest we will remain rain free until at least Tuesday, and even then chances don`t get any higher than 20 or 30 percent. /61/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Fair weather cumulus will develop over much of the area through the afternoon hours but dry conditions are forecast areawide due to strong subsidence in the mid levels. Low-level winds will be from the northwest at 3-6 kts. Overnight, expect fair skies with potential for some brief reduction in visibility across portions of the northwest and eastern areas before sunrise Friday morning. Fair skies are forecast through the morning on Friday with low-level winds from the northeast at 3-6 kts. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain chances will remain at zero through the weekend as high pressure takes hold. With temperatures climbing back into the 90s and a modestly dry airmass in place, RH values should range from 35 to 45 percent each afternoon through Sunday. 20 foot winds will remain less than 7 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 62 91 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 63 90 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 65 91 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 65 92 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 65 90 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 66 88 69 90 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 66 91 70 92 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 66 90 68 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....61 AVIATION...05